One of the year's guaranteed biggest movies (if not possibly the biggest of 2015) arrives starting tonight, as Avengers: Age of Ultron attacks over 4,200 locations, one of the widest releases ever. And it arrives three years after The Avengers broke the opening weekend record. That movie earned $207.4 million in just 3 and a half days. And it also held up well, earning just over three times that amount by the time it finished ($623 million), becoming the third-biggest movie in history (and the biggest non-James Cameron movie). Since Avengers, interest in the Marvel Cinematic Universe has only escalated, with sequels Iron Man 3, Thor: The Dark World and Captain America: The Winter Soldier earning more than their solo movie predecessors. In addition to that, Guardians of the Galaxy outgrossed two of the three. So anticipation is clearly huge. The addition of Scarlet Witch, Quicksilver and the use of Ultron as a villain will definitely spike interest even higher among fanboys and comic book fans. But, it would seem very hard to predict an opening above that insane $207 million number.On the downside, reviews have been surprisingly not acclaim-worthy (73% on Rotten Tomatoes), which may or may not help in its quest to take in mainstream moviegoers. Also not helping will be the Kentucky Derby and a major wrestling match on TV Saturday night. Those will definitely damper some mid-weekend business. However, this is Avengers we are talking about, and the first movie was so well-liked that majority of the fans that caught up with it later on are more likely to rush out here.
I am seeing the movie tomorrow night, and I am expecting my prediction to be either blown away or be too optimistic. I can say ticket sales have outpaced all previous Marvel movies, though considering how much has gone online in the last couple years in comparison to when the first movie came out, its not a direct comparison. The movies over the past few years that has come the closest to Avengers record has been The Hunger Games: Catching Fire and The Dark Knight Rises, both of which earned $160 million.
So, my official prediction....I am going to go with a small jump on the record thanks to all the strong signs seen...$212 million. As for long-term, sequels usually don't hold quite as well in the long-run, I am going to guess a final gross anywhere between $550 and $600 million. Age of Ultron should hold the #1 spot next weekend and could hold it for its third weekend too (barring an unexpectedly strong debut from Pitch Perfect 2 or Mad Max: Fury Road).
Avengers will steal the thunder from the remainder of the movies in theaters. Furious 7, after topping four weeks straight, will likely drop around 60%, putting it at $7.5 million for the weekend. It will be in a close race for second with Paul Blart - Mall Cop 2 and The Age of Adaline, which both should also earn around $7.5 million apiece thanks to Avengers not being as big of a threat to both of those films' audiences. DreamWorks Animation's Home should round out the Top 5 in its sixth frame with close to $5 million.
Also noteworthy, Disney has put Cinderella in some double-features with Avengers. Do not be surprised if the fairy tale remake jumps back into the Top 10 this week with a small increase. A jump similar to Oz the Great and Powerful would give it $3.2 million, which would be enough to get sixth place (by default).
Rest of the Top 10:
#7: Ex Machina ($3 million, -46%)
#8: The Longest Ride ($2.4 million, -47%)
#10: Monkey Kingdom ($2 million, -47%)
Woman in Gold ($2 million, -43%)
