Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: Insurgent ($60 million)
#2: Cinderella ($34.5 million, -47%)
#3: Do You Believe? ($7.5 million)
#4: The Gunman ($7 million)
#5: Run All Night ($6 million, -46%)
#6: Kingsman: The Secret Service ($4 million, -41%)
The Second-Best Exotic Marigold Hotel ($4 million, -30%)
#8: Focus ($3.5 million, -38%)
#9: The Spongebob Movie: Sponge Out of Water ($3 million, -25%)
#10: McFarland, USA ($2.5 million, -31%)
Chappie ($2.5 million, -56%)
Insurgent is tracking a little bit stronger than the first movie, and seems set to have a strong debut at #1. With faith-based audiences not having any movies in a while, Do You Believe? should come close to God's Not Dead's $9.1 million debut from last year. Meanwhile, mediocre reviews and buzz will plague The Gunman's chances at breaking out.
As for holdovers, Insurgent's appeal among women could hurt Cinderella's holding power. Run All Night may lose some audience to The Gunman. The stronger holds will go to movies that have less competition (McFarland, Spongebob, Exotic Marigold Hotel, Focus), while those having negative word-of-mouth won't hold nearly as well (Chappie).
