Overall business should be up from last year as things slow down some.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: American Sniper ($50 million. -44%)
#2: The Boy Next Door ($14 million)
#3: The Wedding Ringer ($13 million, -37%)
#4: Mortdecai ($11.5 million)
#5: Paddington ($11 million, -42%)
#6: Taken 3 ($8.5 million, -42%)
#7: Strange Magic ($7.5 million)
#8: Selma ($7 million, -21%)
#9: The Imitation Game ($6 million, -12%)
#10: Into the Woods ($4.5 million, -34%)
The Boy Next Door has a decent chance at breaking out, but not by much. Despite some decent buzz, Jennifer Lopez really is not a proven movie star at all. While the thriller/suspense theme and the romance (well, of sorts) theme may take in some females and date night crowds, its not really anything that will be remembered in the next couple months. Mid-teens millions seems to be the ceiling.
Mortdecai is bringing something interesting to the table with Johnny Depp playing the title role. Despite some added starpower from Gwyneth Paltrow, and some solid marketing muscle, this just doesn't look like something that will attract huge crowds. Negative reviews won't help either. This may match Transcendence's disastrous $11.7 million debut at best.
Strange Magic is left at the bottom here, and looks to get animation off to a rocky start this year. Despite some decent marketing from Disney, the movie was scheduled too late in 2014 to give it much of a chance. Some families and Lucasfilm fans may check it out, and the animation is actually interesting-looking, but high single-digits may be stretching things here (especially with no 3D helping).
As for holdovers, the Oscar nominees such as Selma and The Imitation Game will hold on the strongest, while American Sniper will probably fall a little bit from its huge opening. Still though, the Clint Eastwood film will easily remain #1. The Wedding Ringer will have some minor competition from Mortdecai but shouldn't be affected too much. Paddington may lose a little steam from Strange Magic, while Into the Woods and Taken 3 should continue to level off.
