Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: American Sniper ($33 million 3-day/$42 million 4-day)
#2: The Wedding Ringer ($25 million 3-day/$31 million 4-day)
#3: Taken 3 ($17 million [-57%] 3-day/$22.5 million 4-day)
#4: Paddington ($16.5 million 3-day/$22 million 4-day)
#5: Selma ($12 million [+6%] 3-day/$17.5 million 4-day)
#6: Blackhat ($10 million 3-day/$14 million 4-day)
#7: The Imitation Game ($7 million [-3%] 3-day/$9.5 million 4-day)
#8: Into the Woods ($6.5 million [-32%] 3-day/$9 million 4-day)
#9: The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies ($5.5 million 3-day [-41%]/$7.5 million 4-day)
#10: Unbroken ($4.5 million [-45%] 3-day/$6 million 4-day)
Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb ($4.5 million [-33%] 3-day/$6 million 4-day)
With six Oscar nominations (including a surprise nod for Best Picture), American Sniper is quickly turning into what could be a record-breaker for January (the current record held by Ride Along's $42 million 3-day weekend on this same weekend last year). However, I'm not being optimistic due to the crowded marketplace. Don't be surprised if it explodes though.
The Wedding Ringer brings Ride Along's Kevin Hart back in a lead role after having a solid year last year at the box office with that movie and the About Last Night remake. Comedies usually fare well around this time of year. However, it is important to note that this one's buzz hasn't been quite as strong as that previous movie. Still though, Ringer should still do solidly over this weekend.
Wisely moving away from the crowded Christmas season, Paddington seemed, at first, like a dud. However, reviews for the movie are surprisingly fantastic (98% on Rotten Tomatoes), and again, the scheduling move will definitely help it (especially with all competition for younger kids fading away). One should also note, however, that families who made repeated trips to the theater in the Christmas season may not come out for this one. However, I said the same for The Nut Job from last January and that one ended up with $25 million over this same extended weekend last year. Paddington, in this case, could end up close to that.
Blackhat arrives as the weak link here, despite some conversation about its cyber-thriller plot relating it to the Sony hack. Chris Hemsworth is a solid lead too. But, buzz and marketing are not very strong. Mid-teens millions over the four-day weekend may be a too generous prediction.
With the Oscar nominations out, Selma should enjoy a minor boost from last weekend, but get a major boost especially with Martin Luther King, Jr. Day on Monday. The Imitation Game will also get a boost thanks to eight Oscar nominations. To a lesser extent, Into the Woods should hold better this weekend but only partly due to a Meryl Streep nomination (partly also due to less competition).
Taken 3 will likely plummet over the 3-day weekend due to abysmal reviews, but should get perked up over the extended frame. Finally, The Hobbit will make its last bow in the Top 10 with one more (solid) weekend with kids out on Monday, while Unbroken will flinch in the face of American Sniper (and also due to only technical nominations at the Oscars). Night at the Museum 3 will have competition from Paddington, but family films usually benefit from extended frames.
