I apologize that this is late but I have been away some this week and just got home. Here is my projected Top 10:
#1: Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day ($24 million)
#2: Gone Girl ($21 million, -44%)
#3: The Judge ($18 million)
#4: Annabelle ($17 million, -54%)
#5: Dracula Untold ($12 million)
#6: The Equalizer ($11 million, -42%)
#7: The Boxtrolls ($6.5 million, -46%)
#8: Addicted ($6 million) The Maze Runner ($6 million, -48%)
#10: Left Behind ($4 million, -37%)
Its going to be very close, but right now, it seems like family movie Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day has the edge. Family movies (particularly sequels) have struggled lately, and its about time something came along to break out. For one, its a Disney movie. Two, it has two bankable leads (Steve Carell and Jennifer Garner). Three, its been heavily marketed. A low-to-mid 20's millions debut would not be surprising at all.
The Judge could also break out. Despite a surprisingly mixed critical reception, it seems like somewhat of an adult drama that can open a little slow then hold on strong in the coming weeks. Marketing has been very strong also for this movie and Robert Downey, Jr. and Robert Duvall are also appealingly strong draws at the box office. Do not be surprised if this matches Moneyball's $19 million debut from three years ago.
Dracula Untold, despite opening at an opportune time, isn't looking to do well. While 3D-CGI flicks can be huge, there have been misfires. And Dracula seems reminiscent of earlier this year's misfire I, Frankenstein, which topped out at around $20 million stateside. With Halloween on its side, this should fare better, but not by much.
Addicted isn't seeming like it will fare strongly in a limited release (900 locations). It has gotten some buzz (according to tracking websites), but my prediction seems generous here.
As for holdovers, Gone Girl stands a strong chance at holding #1 should Alexander not hit the heights I'm predicting. Strong reviews and continual buzz should keep the drop under 50%. Annabelle would normally drop harder in the face of competition such as Dracula but the Halloween season should aid some. The Boxtrolls and The Maze Runner will likely be hurt by Alexander and Dracula. The stronger holds should go to those having less competition to deal with (The Equalizer and Left Behind).
