Friday, September 19, 2014

Weekend Box Office Predictions for September 19-21, 2014.

Overall business should rebound from the last couple weeks, thanks to three openers that should at least do decently.

Here is the predicted Top 10:

#1: The Maze Runner ($30 million)
#2: A Walk Among the Tombstones ($16 million)
#3: This is Where I Leave You ($13 million)
#4: Dolphin Tale 2 ($11 million, -31%)
#5: No Good Deed ($10.5 million, -57%)
#6: Guardians of the Galaxy ($5.5 million, -32%)
#7: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($3.5 million, -29%)
#8: Lets Be Cops ($3 million, -32%)
      The Drop ($3 million, -27%)
#10: If I Stay ($2.5 million, -36%)

The Maze Runner isn't looking to be the next Divergent or Hunger Games, though thanks to a strong marketing effort and a guy-centric focus, it still looks like it will open very strong. The book may not be the most popular YA out there, but it does have its fanbase. Buzz has been fairly strong, though nowhere near the aforementioned titles.

A Walk Among the Tombstones presents a more darker effort for Liam Neeson, who has come off a string of solid successes, with Taken 2 and Non-Stop all succeeding. This carries an R rating, however, and the darker feel will keep some audiences at home. Still though, Neeson's a strong enough draw to bring in a decent crowd.

This is Where I Leave You has had a strong marketing effort, and should be a decent choice for the date night crowd. However, its' cast, led by Jason Bateman and Tina Fey, don't really have a strong, guaranteed audience. At most, the forecast I'm looking at seems somewhat generous here. Don't be surprised if it opens to less.

The holdovers should continue to keep themselves going. Based on recent trajectories of recent movies, look for Dolphin Tale 2 to barely jump ahead of No Good Deed this weekend. Guardians of the Galaxy and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles should continue to level off, as should If I Stay and Lets be Cops. Finally, The Drop should hold the strongest as it expands to just over 1,000 locations.