Overall business will continue to lag behind last year, but the openers this weekend are looking fairly strong...
Here's the projected Top 10:
#1: No Good Deed ($20 million)
#2: Dolphin Tale 2 ($14.5 million)
#3: Guardians of the Galaxy ($6.5 million, -38%)
#4: Lets be Cops ($3.8 million, -33%)
#5: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($3.5 million, -46%)
If I Stay ($3.5 million, -39%)
#7: The November Man ($2.8 million, -33%)
#8: When the Game Stands Tall ($2.5 million, -27%)
#9: The Giver ($2 million, -41%)
The Hundred-Foot Journey ($2 million, -36%)
I haven't heard much about No Good Deed, but I do know its generating quite a bit of strong buzz, similar to that of Tyler Perry's movies. Idris Elba is a solid draw, though he doesn't normally get lead roles. Unless a strong fanbase for African-American-centric movies really inflates this, I would not be surprised if this tops the weekend with around $20 million.
Dolphin Tale 2 is opening in prime position for a family sequel. A 3-year wait is now typical. Unfortunately, despite solid buzz, family sequels have struggled this year (How To Train Your Dragon 2 and Planes: Fire and Rescue all lost around 25-30% of their predecessors' steam, while Rio 2 came about $10 million short of the first movie). The first Dolphin was a well-received success, but the marketing effort here has been fairly generic. There's still a chance families could come out in droves and push this to breakout numbers, but right now, I'm staying on the sensitive end and projecting a lower opening than the first movie's $19 million opening.
As for the holdovers, all look to settle for scraps. Guardians of the Galaxy should continue to play well, while Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles will lose audience to Dolphin Tale 2. No competition will give solid holds to the remaining films, especially for Lets be Cops, The November Man and NFL fan-driven When the Game Stands Tall.
