I took last weekend off from blogging due to being busy. But, I would like to address what is going to be a possible breakneck stretch for movies, and that is the Christmas season (the weeks of December 12-New Year's).
Arguably looking to be the biggest grosser of the bunch is Peter Jackson's final Middle Earth movie, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. Opening on a Wednesday (December 17) will water down opening weekend interest, but considering it bridges both Hobbit and Lord of the Rings film trilogies, it seems like this one should generate a lot of interest. However, The Desolation of Smaug did lose a bit of steam from An Unexpected Journey, dropping to $255 million (first one earned $305 million). An abrupt ending and the connection to the latter movies could help it bring back some audience, but whether or not it beats the first movie is a huge question mark. The $1 billion mark may still fall worldwide given the fact its a final entry, but that is also a question mark.
Ridley Scott's latest opens on the first Christmas weekend, as he ventures into the Biblical epic arena with Exodus: Gods and Kings (December 12). The movie had an impressive first trailer, and boasts starpower such as Christian Bale, Joel Edgerton, Ben Kingsley and Sigourney Weaver. By all means, the movie resembles Darren Aronofosky's controversial Noah from earlier this year, which barely passed $100 million stateside ($350 million worldwide). However, a Christmas release should allow this to do more.
Family audiences will have more than they bargained for this Christmas. There are 4 (supposedly) PG-rated movies going for families. It used to be 6, with Minions and Tomorrowland originally slated for this time period before (wisely) vamoosing to 2015. The big question is, which one will break out? And will more than one of them flop due to so many options? (not to mention Hobbit will steal a lot of older children as well).
The safest bet may actually be threequel Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb (December 19). Ben Stiller had a small slip-up with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, but the Museum movies both were successes at $250 million and $175 million, respectively (the second one had stronger competition). Competition won't do this one any favors, and the trend seems to recall The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader, which earned $50 million less than the second film. If Tomb can net at least $125 million stateside (perhaps more if it can benefit from the Christmas bump the first movie did plus being a finale of sorts for the franchise), it will still be a major success (overseas will help also).
Disney is hoping their Broadway adaptation of Into the Woods (December 25) will serve as a movie for all ages. Despite the fairy tale focus, however, the musical has some mildly mature themes that may keep younger kids away. One has to wonder if this will either be marketed as a family movie or just a musical that will get critics/Oscar attention like Les Miserables. If it doesn't successfully connect with a younger audience, then it may perform like Saving Mr. Banks, which earned $85 million last year. But given its not as well-known as Les Miz, don't look for it to earn as much as that adaptation's $145 million gross.
Sony is also getting on the musical circuit with a remake of Annie (December 19). Thankfully, this one seems more light and family-friendly than the other. That may be good news. However, I'm not certain that the African-American version of the character will connect with everyone. The marketing started a lot earlier than most other Christmas releases which will certainly help it, but the competition will hold it back some. This may only do minor business, perhaps in the $50-$75 million range.
The weakest of the four will likely be The Weinstein Company's adaptation of Paddington (December 25). Serving as an alternative for little ones, the live-action/CGI flick seems more tailored for foreign audiences (it is a British film). Should it be marketed right, it could get some little kids, but don't look for much more than Winnie the Pooh ($25 million stateside) here, especially considering the competition. New Year's may boost it, but again, this is likely the fourth or fifth choice for moviegoers.
Aside from that, we get Angelina Jolie's latest directorial effort, Unbroken, which is looking to compete for Oscar attention. Based on the life of Louis Zamperini (who passed recently), the movie's first trailer worked extremely well. With Oscar buzz, it should find itself with solid grosses. But, a too-crowded slate could make this more along decent lines, like War Horse ($80 million).
Adults get comedy sequel Hot Tub Time Machine 2 (December 25). The first movie was only a so-so success, earning $50 million in Spring 2010, but a lack of comedy competition for Christmas could at least allow this sequel to earn around the same. Tim Burton releases biography Big Eyes (December 25), which is also vying for Oscar attention. Christoph Waltz and Amy Adams star. It could be different enough to bring in some mainstream audiences, but it probably won't do much in a crowded marketplace.
Not discounting November, which includes possible big animated hits Big Hero 6 and The Penguins of Madagascar, comedy sequels Horrible Bosses 2 and Dumb and Dumber To, Christopher Nolan's interesting looking Interstellar, sports drama McFarland, and what seems likely to be the year's biggest movie, The Hunger Games - Mockingjay Part I.
