With two fairly weak openers debuting, its likely we will see a holdover from the beginning of the month remain on top.
Here is the projected Top 10 list for the 4-day Labor Day holiday:
#1: Guardians of the Galaxy ($19 million)
#2: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($18 million)
#3: When the Game Stands Tall ($10 million)
#4: Lets Be Cops ($9.5 million)
#5: If I Stay ($9 million)
As Above, So Below ($9 million)
#7: The November Man ($7.5 million)
#8: The Giver ($7 million)
#9: The Hundred-Foot Journey ($6 million)
#10: The Expendables 3 ($5.5 million)
Both new releases look like stinkers. Despite a strong marketing effort, Legendary's low-budget horror flick As Above, So Below will likely have a front-loaded four-day start, similar to other horror flicks. However, it was only produced for $5 million, so its going to be OK in the end. But this will likely be forgotten within the next month or so.
Same will be said for The November Man, which actually opened on Wednesday to a mediocre $850,000. It should perk up some on Friday, but really, the Pierce Brosnan thriller doesn't seem to have a lot of awareness. The six-day gross will likely fall short of $10 million.
Its going to be close, but many are saying that Guardians of the Galaxy will hold on for a third non-consecutive frame on top. But, what will the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles have to say about that? The film only finished $500,000 behind Guardians last weekend, and with it being more kid-friendly over the weekend, will that be enough for it to possibly pull off an upset and win a third non-consecutive weekend? We will find out in the coming days.
Third through sixth place is going to be a nail-biter. I am giving the edge to When the Game Stands Tall, however, due to solid word-of-mouth, and timing right before NFL kickoff, plus some appeal with families as well. Lets Be Cops should hold well, while If I Stay will likely drop hard, similar to other teen-appealing movies.
Below the tiebreaker, no competition will favor strong holds for catch-up options such as The Giver and The Hundred-Foot Journey. Finally, The Expendables 3 will catch a break before flying off into obscurity.
And no mentioning of Sin City: A Sequel That Gets Totally Killed at the Box Office, which will get kicked out of the Top 10 in hard-falling fashion.
Top 10 for the 3-day (projected):
#1: Guardians of the Galaxy ($13.5 million, -22%)
#2: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles ($12.5 million, -25%)
#3: Lets be Cops ($7.5 million, -31%)
When the Game Stands Tall ($7.5 million, -11%)
#5: As Above, So Below ($7 million)
If I Stay ($7 million, -55%)
#7: The November Man ($6 million)
#8: The Giver ($5 million, -22%)
#9: The Hundred-Foot Journey ($4.5 million, -15%)
#10: The Expendables 3 ($4 million, -38%)
