This weekend, we get four completely different movies. Horror fans get a second sampling of scares by force, planes talk again, another Christian movie hits theaters, and Jason Segel and Cameron Diaz do totally inappropriate stuff.
Here is my Top 10:
#1: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes ($33 million, -55%)
#2: The Purge: Anarchy ($23 million)
#3: S** Tape ($20 million)
#4: Planes: Fire and Rescue ($17 million)
#5: Transformers: Age of Extinction ($8 million, -51%)
#6: Tammy ($6.5 million, -48%)
#7: 22 Jump Street ($3.5 million, -46%)
#8: Persecuted ($3 million)
How To Train Your Dragon ($3 million, -51%)
Earth to Echo ($3 million, -46%)
The new releases haven't exactly had a lot of strong buzz. Its difficult to predict which one will come out on top, but I don't expect them to top Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, which should hold stronger than normal for a summer release due to strong word of mouth.
The Purge: Anarchy seems to have the edge in terms of buzz. But the first one (which opened to $34 million last year) didn't have particularly great word-of-mouth (it dropped 76% in its second weekend). Horror films haven't done well this year either, not a great sign for this. Universal has marketed it well, which should be enough to get this to solid numbers, though unspectacular.
Segel and Diaz's starpower should be enough to lift S** Tape to solid numbers, though squarely in the middle for the R-rated comedy genre this summer. Buzz hasn't been there (as far as other analysts have reported). R-rated comedies have also been the rage this summer (and audiences have shown not to embrace more than one at once this summer (i.e. 22 Jump Street vs. A Million Ways to Die in the West), and that includes the PG-13 comedies as well). With Tammy only doing just "fine" business, this could break out, but the R rating will hold back some audience.
A genre that's struggled even more so this summer is family films. So I guess Planes: Fire and Rescue's chances are up in the air. It all depends if families are ready for something new. Maleficent and The LEGO Movie have been the only real success stories this year (in the midst of some solid, some mixed bag, and some true stinkers) for family audiences. The first Planes landed safely in the solid territory with $220 million worldwide ($90 million stateside), and was a winner in the midst of a crowded family slate last summer. But, word-of-mouth wasn't fantastic. Disney obviously marketed the heck out of this, so it should do just fine (no competition until Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles should help as well).
Persecuted has been advertised on Facebook a lot. Its only opening in around 700 locations, but it could break out. The attention seems higher than that of Mom's Night Out from May (but that one had a wider release and more TV advertisement). Faith-based audiences should be heading out to see this, and with a weak-looking logjam at the bottom of the list, this should make it into the Top 10.
As for holdovers, no one is going to hold well with the diverse new options. Well, Transformers may actually be an exception since there's no new CGI-infused competition, but the genre's past trajectories almost make it seem impossible for it to drop below 50%. Tammy and 22 Jump Street are going to get punched by S** Tape, while How To Train Your Dragon 2 and Earth to Echo will get schooled by Planes: Fire and Rescue.
