Overall box office is looking to be pretty lousy....who can expect to match Despicable Me 2's monstrous $143 million 5-day debut last year (add to that Lone Ranger's $49 million 5-day start).
Here is how I think things will work out (Wednesday's grosses factored in):
#1: Transformers: Age of Extinction ($39 million, -61%)
#2: Tammy ($22 million) ($33 million 5-day)
#3: Earth to Echo ($14 million) ($19 million 5-day)
#4: Deliver Us from Evil ($11.5 million) ($16.5 million 5-day)
#5: How To Train Your Dragon 2 ($9.5 million, -30%)
#6: 22 Jump Street ($8.5 million, -46%)
#7: Maleficent ($5.5 million, -35%)
#8: Think Like a Man Too ($5 million, -51%)
Jersey Boys ($5 million, -35%)
#10: America ($3.5 million) ($4.5 million 5-day)
To be honest, I thought Tammy was going to have a shot at beating Transformers for the weekend, but based on its $6.2 million Wednesday gross, and business surely to go down on Friday, it will wind up far from beating that number (unless there's unexpectedly strong holding power). Predicting 4th of July weekend is hard, especially considering releases with smaller grosses. Regardless of how it ends up, with a budget of under $25 million, Tammy is guaranteed to be another huge hit for Melissa McCarthy. As such, whether or not it hits $35 million for the 5-day stretch (We're The Millers had a similar non-holiday start on its way to a $38 million 5-day gross), its still a solid gross.
Earth to Echo always looked like a weak opener (E.T. knockoff of sorts [I do want to see it though]). And a $2.7 million opening day isn't anything worth phoning home about. Still, with the holiday on Friday, it should set itself up for a stronger Saturday bump than other family films get in the summer. If it can get to around $20 million by Sunday, it will be in good shape. Reviews haven't been too bad either.
Deliver Us from Evil was looking at being a possible break-out this summer according to some analysts, especially with no other horror films this summer so far. But a $2.9 million opening day doesn't set up well. It might jump up a little on Saturday, but horror films can be notoriously front-loaded. $15 million for five days could be the ceiling here. Regardless, the budget was small so it will be fine in the end.
The final new release, documentary America from Dinesh D'Souza, got off to a more muted start, earning $650,000 from 1,100 locations. Due to its patriotic theme, look for this to pick up business a little over the next few days. But I might be being a little too generous with the $4.5 million 5-day start.
As for holdovers, Transformers: Age of Extinction will be the first movie since Captain America: The Winter Soldier to top the box office for consecutive weeks in a row. That doesn't mean it will hold well, however. Reviews are horrible, and audience reception is only OK (A- CinemaScore doesn't always save action pics). That being said, a 60% drop is likely.
How To Train Your Dragon 2 would be bitten into by Echo on a normal weekend, but the 4th of July holiday will allow some families to catch up here, so it seems likely it will finally see a strong hold here. Same for Maleficent, which won't have much competition for its younger female audience. Jersey Boys will also benefit from no competition for its older audience.
22 Jump Street and Think Like a Man Too will likely have heavy drops this weekend in the face of Tammy.
