DreamWorks Animation is in need of a win, while Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill's potential are once again put to the test. Both movies are tracking incredibly well, and seem likely to open to blockbuster-level numbers. But which one will come out on top?
Here is my predicted Top 10 for this week:
#1: How To Train Your Dragon 2 ($71 million)
#2: 22 Jump Street ($58 million)
#3: Maleficent ($18 million, -48%)
#4: The Fault in Our Stars ($17 million, -65%)
#5: Edge of Tomorrow ($16 million, -44%)
#6: X-Men: Days of Future Past ($8 million, -46%)
#7: Godzilla ($3.5 million, -43%)
#8: A Million Ways to Die in the West ($3 million, -59%)
#9: Neighbors ($2.5 million, -53%)
#10: Chef ($2 million, -23%)
How To Train Your Dragon 2 has received some of the best reviews (along with The LEGO Movie) of recent memory for an animated movie. The first one was almost perfect on Rotten Tomatoes anyway (98%). The marketing muscle is once again exercised to the breaking point. And the animation looks fantastic. Tracking, while strong, is still hard to configure an exact opening. But never underestimate family audiences.
22 Jump Street is Sony's highest-tested R-rated comedy in their history. (funny how Jonah Hill is competing against himself, as he does a voice in Dragon) And reviews and marketing have been terrific. Despite a couple of comedies going down for the count, it looks like audiences are ready to come out again for this sequel. The first Jump Street was a leggy hit back in Spring 2012 with $140 million domestically, and this one looks to grow on that one's word-of-mouth.
As for holdovers, The Fault in Our Stars looks prime for a hefty decline this week, as it delivered one of the most front-loaded opening weekends ever. It may stabilize later in the month, but don't look for anything below 50% here. Maleficent will have to fight against Dragon for the family audience, though its' reportedly strong word-of-mouth might keep its decline below 50%. Edge of Tomorrow remains questionable, as word-of-mouth is solid, though not as spectacular as reviews (90% RT) suggest. Lucky for it, Dragon and Jump Street aren't exactly strong counter-programming for it, so it should hold decently.
Chef will obviously be the one to hold the strongest, being a limited release. A Million Ways to Die in the West and Neighbors are both looking at huge drops above 50% due to the arrival of Jump Street. X-Men: Days of Future Past and Godzilla, on the other hand, have no real competition this week, and should break their streaks of heavy declines with drops below 50% this week.
