Overall box office will be down from last year, though to be fair, this same weekend last year was Thanksgiving weekend (and a record-breaking one at that), so it isn't a direct apples-to-apples comparison...overall revenue will get a huge boost though, thanks to...
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Yep, the massively-anticipated sequel to the latest YA sensation is hitting theaters. The first Hunger Games, which debuted close to two years ago, had the third-biggest opening weekend on record with $152 million, and had decent legs, going on to earn over $400 million in the U.S. alone. With that in mind, Catching Fire had high buzz ever since the beginning of this year, and everyone knows its' going to open huge. But the question is, how huge? Sequels to YA films do generally build on their predecessors, and critical reception for this movie is even stronger than the first movie (strange enough that this franchise is getting strong reviews in contrast to the Twilight movies). However, it is worth pointing out that unlike the generally competition-free Spring release date the first movie had, the second movie is opening in a much more competitive environment in late-November. Thor: The Dark World, The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug and even Frozen will take away some of its' attention (in the action fanatic, book fans, and younger female demographics respectively). However, these are only minor setbacks and may only peck away at the films' final gross potential. It should at least come close to matching its' predecessor, and playing in IMAX theaters will only help boost the gross higher (the first movie didn't play in IMAX until late in its run), although the lack of 3D won't boost it. I'm going with a $161 million prediction for the weekend. It should then remain on top for possibly three-straight weekends, and finish with around $400 million domestically, with an outside shot of finishing ahead of Iron Man 3 ($409 million) as the year's biggest movie domestically. With stronger overseas grosses expected, the final worldwide gross could climb to the vicinity of $750-$900 million.
Hoping to take in older audiences is Vince Vaughn dramedy Delivery Man. The concept is fairly interesting, about how a man never realized he had so many biological children. Plus, there's very little competition for its' audience (though all movies will take a hit from Hunger Games). Plus, the marketing's been solid by Disney (who is releasing it through their Touchstone division). However, Vaughn is no longer a strong draw at the box office, and with the heavy amount of Oscar contenders and adult dramas opening in the next few weeks, it may be tough for this one to attract a huge audience. I think a fourth place opening of $14 million may suffice, on its' way to around $50 million with a Thanksgiving boost.
With no real competition, The Best Man Holiday may just steal second place from Thor: The Dark World. Strong word-of-mouth may get this to ease about 45% to $16.5 million, for a $55 million gross in 10 days. The superhero sequel will likely drop pretty hard in the face of Hunger Games, even though its' male audience won't show much interest in that film. A 60% dip to $15 million will give it $169 million in 17 days. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be a distant Free Birds, which will get one final strong hold before Frozen, so a 35% dip to $5.5 million will give it around $49 million in 24 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Last Vegas ($5 million, -40%)
#7: Bad Grandpa ($4.5 million, -39%)
#8: Gravity ($4 million, -40%)
#9: 12 Years a Slave ($3 million, -35%)
#10: Captain Phillips ($2.5 million, -44%)
Ender's Game ($2.5 million, -60%)
Ender's Game ($2.5 million, -60%)
