Easily expected to be the top new release by many miles is the latest Disney fairy tale, Frozen. The animated flick has been receiving rave reviews, some calling it Disney's best since their peak back in the early 90's with The Little Mermaid, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin and The Lion King. Frozen couldn't be opening on a better weekend, as Disney has had great success over Thanksgiving weekend, owning 7 of the Top 10 biggest Thanksgiving openings of all-time, including the Top 3 (Toy Story 2, Tangled and Enchanted). Frozen should keep Disney's streak alive as their animation studio has regained its spring in its step with Tangled and Wreck-it Ralph earning close to or over $200 million apiece. This one could do similar, with solid buzz and anticipation. It also helps that the marketplace is free of just about any animated competition the rest of the Holiday Season. Don't expect it to match Tangled's $69 million 5-day start, as the Snow Queen fairy tale isn't as well-known as Rapunzel. Also, the mixed reception on the marketing may not bring in a strong audience. I think it will open to around $42 million over the three-day stretch, and $59 million over the extended Thanksgiving weekend. Frozen should go on to earn around $175 million by the time its done, with Oscar nominations in its future.
Hoping to take some family audiences away from Frozen is another PG-rated musical, Black Nativity. Based on the popular stage musical, the film boasts starpower including The Butler's Forrest Whittaker, Jennifer Hudson, Angela Bassett and Mary J. Blige. For those not interested in cartoons, this film will cater to holiday audiences as well as the African-American demographic. However, buzz has been relatively unnoticeable, while reviews have been solid so far. Still though, it will be a solid option for Christian and mainstream audiences, who usually come out for an event like this. Black Nativity should open in third place with a $10 million 3-day and $14 million 5-day. Christmas movies play well usually, so look for this to earn around $40 million by the time its done.
Hoping to take in adult moviegoers is crime thriller Homefront, which features Jason Statham and James Franco (Oz: The Great and Powerful). The movie has seen some solid marketing, and Franco does have an audience. However, Statham movies don't open high and buzz isn't great. Reviews have been bad so far. Plus, it doesn't seem like typical Thanksgiving movie fare. The lack of crime-themed movies in the marketplace should work well in its' favor, however. Look for a three-day debut of $8 million, and a five-day start of around $11 million, landing in sixth place. It should then make its' way to around $25 million stateside.
Hoping to benefit from possible awards attention is historical book adaptation The Book Thief, which is expanding to over 1,000 locations this weekend after a solid limited run. Historical dramas usually do solid business during the holidays, and mainstream audiences will find this to be a very solid option. Unfortunately, reviews have been mixed, and its' hard to perform well in a crowded marketplace. But distributor 20th Century Fox has done a good job with the marketing and this option is different enough that it will get a solid amount of attention. Look for around $6.5 million for the three-day stretch and around $9 million for the extended stretch. I think this will play quite well, and make its way to above $30 million by the time its' done.
Two other movies, Josh Brolin's Oldboy and French drama Philomena are opening in around 500 theaters. Their potential is fairly limited, though the latter had a strong debut in limited release and features Judi Dench. Five-day debuts in the $3.5 million range look to be in the cards, which likely won't be enough to crack the Top 10.
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should top the box office again, though how hard will it drop? The jury is currently out on that. I think a 60% dip to $63 million for the three-day is likely, for a five-day pick-up of around $85 million. The sequel will have earned $265 million through its' 10th day.
Here is the projected Top 10 for the three-day and five-day:
3-day
#1: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($62.5 million, -62%)
#2: Frozen ($42.5 million)
#3: Black Nativity ($10 million)
#4: Thor: The Dark World ($9.5 million, -33%)
#5: The Best Man Holiday ($8.5 million, -32%)
#6: Homefront ($8 million)
#7: The Book Thief ($6.5 million)
#8: Delivery Man ($5 million, -37%)
#9: Free Birds ($3.5 million, -35%)
#10: Last Vegas ($3 million, -32%)
5-day
#1: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($85 million)
#2: Frozen ($59 million)
#3: Black Nativity ($14 million)
#4: Thor: The Dark World ($13 million)
#5: Homefront ($11 million)
#6: The Best Man Holiday ($10.5 million)
#7: The Book Thief ($9 million)
#8: Delivery Man ($6.5 million)
#9: Free Birds ($4.5 million)
#10: Last Vegas ($4 million)
Look out for future updates throughout the weekend!
