Overall business will be off from last year, but again, its not a direct apples-to-apples comparison (last year was Thanksgiving on this weekend)...
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire is huge, as expected, with an estimated $70.5 million on Friday. That's slightly ahead of the original Hunger Games, which debuted to $67 million on its' debut Friday back in March 2012, and a bit ahead of Iron Man 3's $68.9 million Friday. With that in mind, its' important to note that $25 million of that gross came from Thursday night, whereas the original Hunger Games earned $20 million at midnight and Iron Man 3 only managed $15 million from Thursday night. With that in mind, the actual Friday figure of $45 million trails both films ($47 million and $54 million). Sequels do tend to be more front-loaded than their predecessors, and the rush out on Thursday could spell harsh drops on Saturday and Sunday.
I think Catching Fire will add between $45 and $50 million on Saturday and additional $30-$35 million on Sunday, setting up for a weekend of around $152 million, exactly in line with its' predecessor. While not as large as what many expected, its still a huge start by all means.
Rounding out the Top 5 are Thor: The Dark World (dropping 60% to a projected $15 million weekend), The Best Man Holiday (surprisingly front-loaded with a 60% drop to a projected $11.5 million weekend), Delivery Man (weak with a projected $8.5 million frame) and Free Birds (projected $5 million weekend).
Weekend estimates to be posted tomorrow...
