Looking to take the runner-up spot this weekend is another critically-adored Oscar contender, biographical thriller Captain Phillips. The Tom Hanks film has been well-promoted for months, and has also tracked well for months. Though Hanks hasn't been in much films lately (besides notorious flop Cloud Atlas), he has two films this year that could cement him a Best Actor nomination next year (this and Saving Mr. Banks). Paul Greengrass, who directed the third Bourne movie, also has a strong reputation. The only drawback, strong competition for adults, last week's Gravity is expected to hold well in its' second frame and hold the top spot, and Prisoners and Rush will likely pull another $5-$6 million away from this movie's potential. But the strong reviews in addition to the famous true story will bring in some adults. Look for a $21 million weekend, on its' way to $60-$65 million domestically, possibly more if word-of-mouth is strong.Also opening this weekend is action sequel Machete Kills from Spy Kids and Sin City's director Robert Rodriguez. Arriving three years after the original Machete was only a minor success at $25 million stateside, it quickly became a fan favorite among Rodriguez's fanbase. But this pattern looks way too much like earlier this year's Kick-*** 2, which had a predecessor that performed only modestly, but would have a strong following, on its' way to getting a sequel that opened and finished well below its' predecessor. Competition is also way too strong. I think a fourth place start of $7 million is likely here, on its' way to just over $15 million here.
Gravity should hold itself together thanks to strong word-of-mouth. Look for a repeat in first with a 45% dip to $30 million, for a $107 million 10-day gross. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs should hold well with no additional competition for families, and should drop around 30% to around $15 million, for a $79 million 17-day pick-up.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#5: Prisoners ($3.5 million, -39%)
#6: Runner, Runner ($3 million, -62%)
#7: Rush ($2.5 million, -45%)
#8: Romeo and Juliet ($2.3 million)
#9: Don Jon ($2 million, -53%)
Baggage Claim ($2 million, -51%)
