Overall box office will probably be down from last year once again....three of the four new releases this weekend are rated R...
It is likely that Gravity that holds the top spot for a third-straight weekend, but it will certainly be a much closer victory than last week. A 35% drop for the film is likely, giving it $28 million and $167 million in 17 days. The sci-fi thriller should go on to finish in the Top 5 for the year so far.
Looking to potentially steal the top spot but most likely will take the runner-up spot is horror remake Carrie, starring 16-year old Chloe Moretz. The controversial horror story has been featured in movies for the past three decades, but this latest rendition has been receiving solid buzz to date. The film has been hidden from critics so far, which isn't a good sign. But that probably won't be an issue. Look for a second place start of $23 million, on its' way to $55 million plus due to Halloween being just a week away.
The next strongest new release stars former box office heavyweights Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sylvester Stallone, Escape Plan. The thriller is hoping to take in older audiences, but the marketplace is quite crowded for adult audiences right now. What's worse, both stars flopped with their recent movies, The Last Stand and Bullet to the Head respectively, which both earned between $10 and $15 million each in their entire runs. The combination of the two should allow the gross to go above that, but not by much. Reviews have been mixed. I think a fifth place start of $9 million should be sufficient, on its' way to $20-$25 million stateside.
Also opening is thriller The Fifth Estate, which will likely settle for scraps. Benedict Cumberbatch stars, and he has made somewhat of an interesting name of himself after an interesting appearance in earlier this year's Star Trek into Darkness. But the plot is fairly lame, and is about the founder of WikiLeaks, not a popular subject. Reviews are mixed. Marketing has been solid by Disney (through Touchstone), but not really spectacular by all means. The film could succeed in mainstream audiences looking for something different, though. I think a $6 million, sixth place opening is a fairly generous prediction at this point, on its' way to $15 million domestically.
Opening in around 500 locations, I'm in Love with a Church Girl is the third attempt in six weeks at Christian audiences (which is a great thing). However, its' two predecessors, The Ultimate Life and Grace Unplugged have made little-to-no noise, earning $1.4 million and $2.5 million (estimated final) through their runs in theaters. Facebook and buzz has been a bit stronger for this though, which could mean a bit stronger of an opening, but the low theater count won't allow it to break out. A $1 million weekend is likely.
Finally, potential Oscar contender 12 Years a Slave opens in 18 locations, and could earn $1 million from its' limited opening alone.
Captain Phillips should slide to third with a solid hold, off 30% to around $18.5 million, for a $55 million 10-day gross. Fellow Sony release Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 should remain in the mix with a strong hold due to no competition, and should drop near 30% to $10 million, for a $93 million pick-up in 24 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#7: Prisoners ($2.5 million, -32%)
#8: Runner Runner ($2 million, -44%)
#9: Machete Kills ($1.5 million, -59%)
#10: Insidious - Chapter 2 ($1.2 million, -54%)
