It's that time of year again!!! The box office enters another strong season, the Holiday Movie Season!! Personally my favorite of the five movie seasons, this particular season boasts a lot of potential strong grossers.
The top draw will probably be The Hunger Games - Catching Fire (November 22), which has been tracking hugely for the last few months. And why not? The original Hunger Games is among the Top 15 biggest-grossing movies domestically, with nearly $410 million from the U.S. alone. Catching Fire is well-positioned to take one of the Top 5 biggest opening weekends ever, and should it match its' predecessor, it would knock Iron Man 3 from the top spot domestically (not worldwide though, where the brand isn't nearly as relevant). Marketing has been spot-on, and basically, fans can't wait to see it. I think the movie will likely earn in the $160-$170 million range for opening weekend, on its' way to $400+ million here.
In December, Peter Jackson returns to middle-earth for his second of three pre-Lord of the Rings movies The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug (December 13). Anticipation and buzz are already sky-high on this film, even though the first Hobbit wasn't well-received last year (many blame the High-Frame Rate and the long running time). This movie boasts the main part of the book though, with the dragon Smaug being put in the marketing campaign. Look for this to maybe open higher than its' predecessor, around $90 million perhaps, on its' way to around the same as its' predecessor, $300 million. Smaug will likely hit $1 billion worldwide, and if it gets a boost from typical sequels overseas, it even has an outside shot at unseating Iron Man 3 for first place on the worldwide chart.
Thor: The Dark World (November 8) is the other major heavy-hitter this season, and is also tracking incredibly strong. The superhero sequel is the second film in Marvel's Phase Two, leading up to Avengers: Age of Ultron in 2015. While the first Thor only managed around a quarter of The Avengers business, Iron Man 3 outperformed the 2nd movie by 25%, and similar growth here would put this movie in the same range as Oz The Great and Powerful ($235 million). Look for Thor 2 to tally around $90 million for its' opening, and perhaps $225-$250 million for its' entire run.
Disney returns to fairy tales this Thanksgiving with Frozen (November 27). Disney's classic fantasies were rebooted successfully with Tangled three years ago. The animated film has had solid buzz over the past month, and with not much competition over the Christmas season for families, this film will play right through New Year's. Disney typically dominates at Thanksgiving, but due to audiences being more familiar with Rapunzel than The Snow Queen, its likely this will miss the $200 million mark. But it wouldn't be surprising if it came close. Look for a five-day opening near $60 million, and a final gross of around $175 million.
The other major huge hit for Holiday 2013 is likely to be comedy sequel Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, which arrives eight years after the original Anchorman was one of the most well-received comedies of the last decade. With the return of Will Ferrell and Steve Carell, plus other stars, the sequel will have no problem taking in comedy audiences in a rather devoid season. Look for a $40 million opening and a $125-$150 million finish.
Oscar contenders are also hoping to make an impact, including Saving Mr. Banks, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street and The Book Thief. Banks and Wall Street will likely succeed due to its early acclaim, while Mitty and Thief will likely settle for middling grosses due to stiff competition. Wild cards and/or dark horses include Free Birds, Ender's Game, Last Vegas, Black Nativity, A Madea Christmas, About Time, Walking with Dinosaurs and The Best Man Holiday.
More analysis to come as we go through the holidays....
