Easily expected to top the frame is animated sequel Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2, which arrives four years after the original Cloudy. Sony Pictures Animation has had the last weekend of September work to their advantage before, with the first Cloudy and last year's Hotel Transylvania, which took the September opening weekend record with $43 million. Based on the strong and very fun marketing campaign and being the only family movie to release between Planes and November's Free Birds, some analysts are betting this will pass that number for the weekend. But not so fast. The original Cloudy was only a minor hit (its' an absolute surprise this sequel was actually made anyway), at $125 million domestic and $250 million worldwide. And even though it was well-received and got a nomination at the following year's Golden Globes, it was still not an animated classic. Many kids did like the film however, and new fans that were won over by the first movie's DVD sales may cause a larger turn-out this time. But the non-Halloween theme may cause it to come up short on Transylvania. The animation does look gorgeous though and the concept seems original (food-imals, sounds almost as silly and engaging as food weather). Early critical reception has been positive. I'm going to predict a $37 million opening weekend for the sequel, and with no competition, it should make its' way to the same range as The Smurfs and Hotel Transylvania ($135-$145 million), if word-of-mouth is good.
Also opening is the latest from Ron Howard, Rush. The film opened to sensational results last week in limited release, and is hoping to open strong to take advantage of pre-Oscar buzz. Chris Hemsworth (Thor), is not a strong draw, but marketing has been very strong for the Universal pic. Strong reviews should help it as well. The only thing is the strong competition from Prisoners, as well as next week's Gravity and Runner Runner. Look for a $15 million, second place opening, on its' way to around $50 million, if not more provided word-of-mouth is strong.
Next up is the next directorial effort from Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Don Jon, which is hoping to take in the Magic Mike audience. The R-rated comedy does promote solid starpower, including Levitt, Scarlett Johansson and Julianne Moore. Mike was a huge success, bringing in over $100 million, but John hasn't exactly shown the female interest of that movie. In fact, marketing has been pretty quiet for the film, despite Levitt appearing on talk shows this week. With it leaning more towards a comedy however, audiences tired of We're The Millers finally will have another option. I'm going to go with a $12 million prediction, on its' way to $30-$35 million, an overall solid result. The film will likely open in fourth place.
Finally, hoping to take in some of Tyler Perry's audience is another romantic comedy, Baggage Claim. There's very little starpower here, but that's not a big issue. It is based on a book, which brings up last year's Think Like a Man, which opened to $30 million. But so far, with stale buzz and just a light marketing effort, this doesn't even look like its' trying to replicate that films' success (part of that due to its' distributor, Fox Searchlight, being an independent label and not usually doing heavy marketing efforts for a rare wide release). Reviews are terrible, and this one is only debuting in around 1,800 locations. Still though, the African-American audience does come out whenever something is appealing, and it appears this is appealing enough to avoid being another Peeples ($4 million opening). A fifth place start of $8 million would be OK, especially with a small budget, on its' way to around $20 million.
Last week's topper, Prisoners, will have some competition, but should ultimately hold well. A 40% dip to $12.5 million should give it $39 million in 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Insidious - Chapter 2 ($6.5 million, -54%)
#7: The Family ($4.5 million, -40%)
#8: Instructions Not Included ($4 million, -26%)
#9: Lee Daniels' The Butler ($3 million, -28%)
#10: We're The Millers ($2.5 million, -48%)
