The movie widely expected to potentially come out on top is R-rated thriller Prisoners, which is benefiting from strong reviews and a solid cast. Hugh Jackman has become quite the star over the past year with Les Miserables and his multiple turns as The Wolverine. Plus, Jake Gyllenhaal starred in last year's surprise hit End of Watch. Despite a strong marketing effort from distributor Warner Bros., the buzz has been very light up to this point. That leaves predictions all over the board. Many believe it will succeed, others think it might disappoint. A showing at the Telluride Film Festival has spun good word-of-mouth thus far. I think a $18 million debut might be in the cards, on its' way to $55-$60 million domestically, provided word-of-mouth is strong.
The other new wide release isn't looking as promising, dance 3D flick Battle of the Year. Trying to become the next Step Up, Battle hasn't had the strong promotion Prisoners has had, and reviews have left little to be desired. Starpower isn't great either, with only TV star Josh Peck being the only real recognizable draw here. Buzz isn't huge either, though pre-screenings have had solid response. I don't see this having a strong debut. It will likely take third place by default with just a $8 million debut, and it will be lucky to reach $25 million by the time its' over with. Sony is having a tough year.Finally, The Wizard of Oz returns to theaters for its' 75th anniversary in 300+ IMAX 3D theaters. Almost no choices for family audiences should allow this to overperform and make it into the Top 10. An eighth place finish of roughly $3 million would be remarkable for a one-week engagement.
Insidious: Chapter 2 may have the floor fall out from it, especially with the Friday the 13th opening being a disadvantage at this point. A 60% fall to $14.5 million would give it $62 million in 10 days. The Family will have Prisoners to face, and may fall 50% to $7 million, for a $25 million 10-day pick-up. The lack of competition will have We're The Millers spend a seventh-straight week in the Top 5, with a 25% dip to $4 million, and a $137 million pick-up in 51 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Lee Daniels' The Butler ($3.8 million, -31%)
#7: Instructions Not Included ($3.5 million, -28%)
#9: Riddick ($2.8 million, -59%)
#10: Planes ($2.5 million, -22%)
