Out of all three new releases, it appears the latest YA book-adaptation The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones has the best chance of topping the box office. Starring Lily Collins (Mirror Mirror, Abduction), the film has gotten relatively solid buzz over the last couple of weeks. However, tracking has been somewhat muted. Other YA Twilight and Hunger Games wannabes have failed, with only Warm Bodies being the success story. Beautiful Creatures and The Host bombed with $20-$30 million apiece. At the beginning of the summer, I thought City of Bones would be a franchise-starter, as its' trailer got a lot of views and its' book basis was much more well-known than those other three. However, unless it pulls an amazing tracking miracle, I don't see it even coming close to matching my expectations from earlier this summer. Reviews have been bad. A Wednesday release should help it earn more over the stretch, so I'm going to go with a $10 million Wednesday-Thursday gross and $17 million over the three-day weekend, on its' way to around $50-$55 million domestically. Altogether, it will be in a close race with The Butler for #1.Horror flick You're Next is hoping to be the next horror break-out after huge hits such as The Purge and The Conjuring were so successful. However, tracking for the flick has been relatively silent, despite the interesting title. Reviews have been terrific so far which may help convince horror fans to come out. But overall, this is looking like another average horror effort based on tracking and the muted marketing effort. A $10 million, fourth place opening is solid enough given the small budget, but expect it to fade fast and finish with less than $25 million.
Finally, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, and other British folk come together for sci-fi entry The World's End. Tracking has been interesting for this film, which has flown under the radar of most tracking sites. However, Pegg and Frost do have an audience, as evidenced by the minor hit Paul from 2011 and other films they've done. And like other efforts of Pegg and Frost's, the film has received critical acclaim. But will the foreign setting turn off some audiences?? And will We're The Millers take some of its' thunder?? Plus, its' only launching in around 1,500 locations (half of the normal wide release these days). I think a $9 million, fifth place start is sufficient, but it should eke out around $30 million by the time its' done (if word-of-mouth is strong).
Lee Daniels' The Butler should see a good hold this weekend with strong word-of-mouth, but right now, I don't know if it can repeat on top. A 30% dip to $17 million would put it in a photo finish race with Mortal Instruments, and it will have picked up $53 million in 10 days. We're The Millers should remain in the mix, with a 35% dip to $11.5 million, and a $87 million 19-day pick-up.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Planes ($8.5 million, -37%)
#7: Elysium ($7 million, -49%)
#8: Kick-*** 2 ($5.5 million, -59%)
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters ($5 million, -44%)
#10: Blue Jasmine ($4.5 million, expanding)
