Well, its Pixar weekend once again, and this year, they are going the prequel route with Monsters University. The college-themed animated flick is arriving 11 1/2 years after the original Monsters, Inc. was a big success, earning over $250 million stateside and $550 million worldwide (which would translate to around $350 million in today's dollars). Monsters isn't the most well-renowned Pixar film, but it is a beloved one (my aunt is very excited to see this!). The voice cast came back, including Billy Crystal, John Goodman, and Steve Buscemi, as well as some new faces, including Sean Hayes, John Krasinski, Helen Mirren, and Julia Sweeney. With only four options for family audiences so far this year and Epic only doing acceptable business, it seems kids are starved for entertainment. This lack of family fare greatly benefited Madagascar 3 and The Lorax last year to $60-$70 million openings and Hotel Transylvania to a September record. Pixar's nearly-spotless track record may allow University to gross even more. The studio does have a serious challenge this year though, competition is fierce over the next several weeks. In fact, Despicable Me 2 could become the first non-Pixar movie to win the summer domestic battle (for animated movies) since the studio released films yearly. But what else could take away kiddos? Turbo, The Smurfs 2, Planes and even Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters will take away all ages over the following six weeks. This means Monsters may not see the usual long playability of Pixar flicks. Also, reviews, while solid, have been more along the lines of Brave and Cars than Toy Story, Up and the original Monsters. But, with reviews being generally positive, it won't affect audience interest. Buzz has been extremely strong, and Disney has done a great job with the marketing. 3D will also help. I think Monsters University will top the weekend (Pixar's 14-straight #1 opening) with a strong $80 million, the second-biggest opening for a Pixar flick behind Toy Story 3. With the strong competition, I think the legs will be more limited and a final gross in the $260 million range seems like a safe bet here. Though, if word-of-mouth is strong, I would not be surprised if it approached $300 million.
The other new nationwide release will have a lot more of an uphill battle. Brad Pitt's World War Z is hoping to take in older audiences not interested in animation. And so far, despite a troubled production, buzz has been good heading into release. Pitt is still a draw at the box office, and the zombie theme plus a strong marketing effort should guarantee a fairly strong audience. Reviews have been surprisingly very good too. However, the amount of competition is strong especially coming out a week after Man of Steel and a week before another [similar] disaster flick White House Down. But the advantages here are enough that the film will easily avoid being a disaster. Paramount needs another major hit this year, and they might have just gotten one here. I think World War Z will take third place with a very good $47 million this weekend. If word-of-mouth is good, then the final gross should go on to around $120 million, not enough to justify its' huge budget ($175 million), but overseas grosses should make that up.
As for Man of Steel, its' getting very good reception from audiences, but World War Z will cause it to drop more than 50% this weekend. Instead, look for a drop along the lines of 55% to $52 million, for a 10-day tally of near $225 million. This is the End, on the other hand, should hold itself well this weekend with no competition. A 35% dip to $13.5 million would give the R-rated comedy $57 million in 12 days. Now You See Me should round out the Top 5 in its' fourth outing with another solid hold in the face of blockbuster fare, a 35% dip to around $7 million. In 24 days, the film would have picked up $93 million, on its' way to $110 million or more.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Fast and Furious 6 ($5.5 million, -43%)
#7: The Internship ($4 million, -44%)
Star Trek into Darkness ($4 million, -36%)
Star Trek into Darkness ($4 million, -36%)
#9: The Purge ($3.5 million, -58%)
#10: Epic ($3 million, -53%)
