Right now, the film with the most potential this weekend (and the best chance to take down Monsters University) is action thriller White House Down. Following the near-$100 million hit Olympus Has Fallen, it would seem like this one would have similar potential. And with a strong cast, including Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx, it could certainly be a huge hit. However, the film hasn't gotten any reviews yet (its' probably bad). Also, especially with World War Z's wild overperformance last week, it seems like audiences may be exhausted by now. However, Ronald Emmerich is a well-known director (he directed Independence Day) and buzz is strong enough that it should debut to solid results (especially given Tatum's appeal with the female sector). A $36 million debut looks likely here, on its' way to a final gross above $100 million.
And the reign of Melissa McCarthy continues with Sandra Bullock in R-rated comedy The Heat. With the success of Identity Thief and Bridesmaids, it appears that McCarthy is now the new go-to name in Hollywood. R-rated comedies have had their try this summer so far, but The Hangover - Part III earned less than half of its' predecessor, while This is the End has failed to break out. That leaves the field wide open for Heat, which has been tracking (until just recently) very well. A female-centric comedy (or movie for that matter) has the tendency to open strong, then see huge legs (Bridesmaids and The Help had weekend multipliers of 6.0). That being said, the police theme seems fitting, and reviews aren't great (but that is to be expected). Still though, the lack of competition could allow Heat to be the breakout comedy of the summer season. I think a $33 million debut is solid enough here (higher than Bridesmaids and slightly lower than Identity Thief), and it should play through July to a final gross of at least $120 million.
With a huge $82 million launch last week and strong weekday business and word-of-mouth to date, Monsters University looks well-positioned to hold the top spot for a second-straight frame. In terms of recent Pixar holds, Toy Story 3 was off 46 percent, Brave was down 49 percent, while Cars 2 fell 62 percent. Being a prequel and the lack of family fare (until next weekend), I think the drop will be more closer towards the middle. A 50% drop to $41 million would give the latest animated hit $160 million in 10 days. World War Z and Man of Steel will probably drop hard in the face of White House Down (particularly the former). Brad Pitt's zombie thriller should fall about 55% to $29 million, for a 10-day tally of $107 million. The superhero flick should fall along the lines of 50% to $20 million, for a $248 million 17-day pick-up.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: This is the End ($6.5 million, -53%)
#7: Now You See Me ($5 million, -38%)
#6: This is the End ($6.5 million, -53%)
#7: Now You See Me ($5 million, -38%)
#8: Fast and Furious 6 ($3 million, -39%)
#9: The Internship ($2 million, -41%)
Star Trek into Darkness ($2 million, -38%)
#9: The Internship ($2 million, -41%)
Star Trek into Darkness ($2 million, -38%)
