We all know who will be on top, but this weekend's guaranteed top new release is tracking strong enough that it does have a shot at coming within shouting distance of that film. Baz Luhrmann brings an adaptation of the classic literature novel, The Great Gatsby. With 3D added, plus the strong starpower of Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire and others, it seems like this one was built for the female audience (but also for literature fans). So far, Gatsby appears to be highly-anticipated among adult audiences, but its' not easy opening a movie a week after a Marvel superhero flick. Distributor Warner Bros., who has had a rocky year so far, had a misfire last year with Dark Shadows (which only managed a $30 million opening), and that one boasted Tim Burton and Johnny Depp. However, Gatsby is different enough that it could easily do well on its' own. Reviews have been mixed though, which may not help interest, so don't expect blockbuster numbers here. I think Great Gatsby should at least outperform Shadows with a $42 million opening, on its' way to $110 million or more (and this may be the ceiling for most predictions).
The other new release comes from Tyler Perry (who produces, not directs), Peeples, who is hoping to replicate the success of Jumping the Broom, which was another African-American centric comedy that managed a strong debut in the face of a superhero movie (Thor). Unfortunately for this film, despite a solid marketing attempt, it has only seen soft levels of anticipation. Reviews will likely be negative. But if its' any movie that can outwit tracking, its' these kinds of movies. A $13 million debut should satisfy, putting the movie in third by default. It should then make its' way to $25-$30 million.That leads us to Iron Man 3, which really blasted to almost the highest of heights last weekend. But how will it hold? Recent holds include a 50% drop for Avengers, a 47% drop for Thor and a 59% drop for Iron Man 2. Given its' solid reception, it should hold around the middle of that spectrum. But its' a sequel, in which sequels usually erode faster due to more up-front demand. I think a 55% dip should be expected here, giving the action threequel $79 million in its' second weekend, for an amazing $290 million 10-day gross.
My time is limited on the computer today, so I'm not going to post the rest of the Top 10...
