It looked like a tight race for a while, but it now seems like the likely winner is going to be the latest installment in the blockbuster action franchise, Fast and Furious 6. Its' rare we ever see a sixth installment in a franchise, but coming two years after Fast Five lit the box office on fire with a $86 million opening and $210 million finish ($600 million worldwide), its' certainly not surprising. Anticipation is red-hot, critical reception is great so far, and ever since its' start a decade ago, the Fast franchise has remained amazingly consistent. Starpower is huge, with Vin Diesel, Michelle Rodriguez, Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, Tyrese Gibson, and Gina Carano, and that's about it. I think there's an excellent chance this could be a record-breaker, but remember, the intense amount of competition this May hurt Star Trek into Darkness, and there's a chance that the intense competition could cannibalize Fast's chances at a $100+ million four-day opening and its' chances of passing its' predecessors' final gross. Due to that, I'm going to lower my prediction a little bit and say Fast Six will open to around $30 million on Friday, on its' way to $77 million for the three-day and $95 million for the extended frame. A final gross of around $200 million or about the same as Fast Five looks likely.
Also opening, two years after its' predecessor broke the Memorial Day record, The Hangover - Part III is hoping the final installment will turn in a huge gross. Opening on Thursday The entire cast returns, and the short wait would typically not lose much audience interest. However, Part II didn't generate goodwill from audiences, and was overall a minor disappointment with critics. That kind of bad taste may actually cause audiences to skip this, especially with the strong amount of competition. However, final installments tend to open the strongest, so don't count this movie out yet. There hasn't been any comedies for quite a while in the marketplace, so mature audiences will likely show up for this. Critical reception is on the negative side. I think this Hangover will debut to $15 million on Thursday, $20 million on Friday, on its' way to a weekend gross of around $60 million, and a $90 million five-day gross. With a lot of competition coming in June, the final gross may well fall short of $200 million, making it the lowest-grossing installment in the franchise, but still far from a disappointment.
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It appears the intense amount of competition may wind up flushing the last new release out into the cold. But that doesn't mean animated film Epic will be a box office flop. There's literally been nothing for family audiences in two months, which means that kids and their parents will definitely show up. Reviews have been great so far which will help overall interest, though anticipation and buzz have been extremely soft (though that's hardly a surprise for an original animated movie). Plus the voice cast is top-shelf, with Amanda Seyfried, Christoph Waltz, Beyonce, Colin Farrell, and Josh Hutcherson starring. Box office analysts are already writing this one off as a weak performer, but I think it will fare better than what some are thinking simply because family movies have the tendency to outwit poor tracking (The Lorax a recent example). Blue Sky Studios' average opening is in the mid-40's millions, and there's no reason not to expect the movie to reach that for the extended period. But the one thing keeping it from breaking out is plenty of other options for non-family audiences. I think Epic might earn in the $9 million range on Friday, on its' way to $35 million for the three-day, and $45 million for the four-day. With three more weeks of family audiences to itself, a final gross in the $125 million range looks to be in the cards, with more than double that overseas.
The holdovers will also be a part of this. Star Trek into Darkness will have a chunk of its' audience taken away due to competition, but the four-day gross will lighten the blow. A 55% drop over the three-day to $32 million and $44 million over the four-day would give the latest Enterprise mission a solid, but unspectacular $151 million gross in 11 days. Iron Man 3 will keep on playing, and will likely chug along at its' current pace. A 45% drop over the three-day to $20 million and $27 million over the four-day would give the blockbuster $374 million since its' unbelievable debut a few weeks ago. The Great Gatsby should rebound this week a bit better, and the competition doesn't look like it will take away too much. A 45% drop to $13.5 million over the 3-day and $18 million over the four-day would give the literary adaptation a strong $117 million in 18 days.
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Fast and Furious 6 ($30 million opening day) ($77 million 3-day) ($95 million 4-day)
#2: The Hangover - Part III ($15 million opening day) ($58 million 3-day) ($75 million 4-day) ($90 million 5-day)
#2: The Hangover - Part III ($15 million opening day) ($58 million 3-day) ($75 million 4-day) ($90 million 5-day)
#3: Epic ($9 million opening day) ($35 million 3-day) ($45 million 4-day)
#4: Star Trek into Darkness ($32 million [-55%] 3-day) ($44 million 4-day)
#5: Iron Man 3 ($20 million [-45%] 3-day) ($27 million 4-day)
#6: The Great Gatsby ($13.5 million [-45%] 3-day) ($18 million 4-day)
#7-#10: Pain and Gain, 42, The Croods and Mud (all will earn in the $1.5 to $2 million range for the 4-day)
#4: Star Trek into Darkness ($32 million [-55%] 3-day) ($44 million 4-day)
#5: Iron Man 3 ($20 million [-45%] 3-day) ($27 million 4-day)
#6: The Great Gatsby ($13.5 million [-45%] 3-day) ($18 million 4-day)
#7-#10: Pain and Gain, 42, The Croods and Mud (all will earn in the $1.5 to $2 million range for the 4-day)
