Well, its' Super Bowl Weekend again. Usually a complicated weekend to release movies, all films are guaranteed to drop 50% or more on Sunday, so don't expect strong numbers for new openers. With only one guaranteed strong opener (vs. last year's two), this weekend will almost certainly be down from last year...
The one strong opener this weekend and guaranteed to take #1 is the first of many Twilight wanna-bes this year, Warm Bodies. The zombie romance is opening at a pretty good time, since there hasn't been much PG-13 choices for audiences within the past month (other than Mama which won't pose much of a threat this weekend). And considering most girls will want to do something else while the guys stay home and watch the game, there's a strong chance this will hold better than other films on Sunday. There are drawbacks though. Buzz has been very strong, but nowhere near Twilight or Hunger Games level of anticipation (the book based on the film isn't as popular, anyway). Plus Beautiful Creatures (which arguably has had stronger marketing, starpower, and fanbase for its' book adaptation) opens less than two weeks to take its' audience away. Regardless of that and negative reviews, the advantages I have written down guarantee a good opening for the film. Look for Warm Bodies to earn about $21 million this weekend, then for it to fade from theaters quickly with a final gross of around $50 million.
The other new release's prospects, not good. Sylvester Stallone, who has had a nice resurgence as of late, headlines Bullet To The Head. The movie certainly has had a fine marketing effort, but its' targeting the audience that will be in front of the TV watching the big game on Sunday. That already tells us that this movie is basically getting pushed out with distributor Lionsgate already knowing it was going to be a flop. Arnold Schwarzenegger had a really bad debut two weeks ago with The Last Stand, and its' likely Bullet, based on tracking, is going to do the same. Bullet should take fifth place with $6 million this weekend, and it will probably earn around $15 million before its' gone.
Last week's topper Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters will likely fall hard with the added Sunday drop. A 60% plunge is likely, giving the action flick $8 million, for a $34 million gross in 10 days. Silver Linings Playbook should continue to hold well with no real competition, but it should drop a little harder this weekend. A 25% dip to $7 million would give it $78 million in 12 weeks. Zero Dark Thirty should round out the Top 5, and hold on a bit better than last weekend. A 35% drop to $6.5 million would give it close to $80 million in seven weeks.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Mama ($5.5 million, -58%)
#7: Parker ($3.5 million, -50%)
#8: Django Unchained ($3 million, -40%)
#9: Les Miserables ($2.5 million, -41%)
Lincoln ($2.5 million, -36%)
