The movie with the biggest potential this weekend is action-infused fairy tale twist, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters. Starring one of Hollywood's rising stars Jeremy Renner (Mission - Impossible: Ghost Protocol, The Avengers and The Bourne Legacy), the film releases in 3D and IMAX 3D. Fairy tale twists usually perform well, but this one is clearly not for family audiences. In a way, Hansel and Gretel is looking to start a franchise like Resident Evil and Underworld did. There's a good chance this movie could, as distributor Paramount has done a fine job with the marketing and anticipation has been above-average for a movie of this genre. Unfortunately, like many movies this month, this flick is going to likely suffer from a huge glut of R-rated competition (with the exception of Mama). I think it will earn just enough to take the top spot, as 3D will boost its' grosses. Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Hansel and Gretel should exterminate around $18 million this weekend, and should go on to earn around $40-$45 million stateside, not enough to justify its' $60 million budget. But based on its' strong $8.5 million Russia debut, its' overseas prospects look strong.
Counterprogramming Hansel and Gretel is comedy Movie 43. Featuring an ensemble cast including Hugh Jackman, Halle Berry, Emma Stone, Gerard Butler, Kristen Bell, and Elizabeth Banks, the series of shorts has been lighting up Twitter over the past week (but that may be due to severe fan inflation). With no comedies on the marketplace for adults since Christmas, it would seem imminent for Movie 43 to break out. If anything, the Relativity Media project is hoping to replicate the success of Valentine's Day, but that isn't going to happen (its' not something for a date night crowd). Opening in around 2,000 screens, Movie 43 might earn $14 million (third place) this weekend, and it should go on to earn around $30 million stateside.
The final new release is aiming to get scraps. Jason Statham's crime thriller Parker is hoping to do better than Statham's previous dud Safe. The flick does have Jennifer Lopez as a co-star which could help this one perform better. But there's too much competition for adults this weekend, perhaps a March release may have suited this one better. Debuting in around 2,200 theaters, Parker may earn around $8 million and sixth place this weekend, on its' way to just $20 million domestically.
After debuting to strong numbers last weekend, Mama is well-positioned to hold itself together, as its' the only non R-rated movie (other than Les Miserables) in the Top 10 this weekend. A 50% drop may happen as R-rated flicks are usually front-loaded, giving the film $14.5 million and second place, for a 10-day gross of $52 million. Jessica Chastain's other film Zero Dark Thirty should hold a lot better with strong word-of-mouth in its' favor. A 35% drop to around $10 million would give the Oscar contender $73 million in five weeks.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Silver Linings Playbook ($7.5 million, -31%)
#7: Les Miserables ($5 million, -33%)
#8: Django Unchained ($4.5 million, -38%)
#9: Gangster Squad ($4 million, -54%)
Broken City ($3.8 million, -52%)
