In what's been one of the most-anticipated movies of the last several years, Peter Jackson returns to middle-earth with The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Acting as a somewhat prequel to The Lord of the Rings' series, the films' book basis has been split into a planned three-part trilogy (starting with Journey, with Desolation of Smaug set for this same weekend next year and There and Back Again set for July 2014). Distributor Warner Bros. has done an incredible job marketing the film, which the first trailer was released with The Adventures of Tintin nearly a year ago. Anticipation is strong and with it being filmed in 3D (and in a new format, 48 frames per second), its' very much likely it will claim the December opening weekend record, last held by I Am Legend ($78 million). One possible drawback is that critical reception, while positive, has called somewhat of a minor disappointment, which may either make or break its' chances at reaching $100 million for the weekend. Plus, with Christmas holidays coming up, some fans may wait until later on to see it, further downgrading its' chances at having a monster weekend. It is obvious that it won't break The Avengers opening weekend record, but at the very lowest possible number, it should match Return of the King's $72 million start. But tracking is large enough that it will open bigger than that. Predictions are all over the board, with analysts guessing between $80 and $120 million. I'm going to go near the middle with a huge $105 million prediction from over 4,000 locations (screen count will likely be over 10,000). With Christmas vacations coming up, expect three or possibly four weeks on top, and a final gross around $350 million, enough to put Hobbit in fourth place for the year, behind Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises and The Hunger Games domestically. International numbers will likely be even stronger, so $1 billion worldwide is certainly possible.As for the holdovers, some will be hit hard, others not so much. One not to be hit hard is Rise of the Guardians, which will still be pulling for younger audiences and with the holidays drawing closer, another strong hold is likely. A 30% dip to around $7.5 million would keep it in second place. Skyfall will likely drop harder as Hobbit will be drawing more for its' audience, so a 45% drop should be in order to $6 million, for a $271 million gross in six weeks.
Here is the remainder of the Top 10:
#4: Lincoln ($5.5 million, -38%)
#5: Life of Pi ($5 million, -40%)
#6: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II ($4.5 million, -51%)
#7: Wreck-it Ralph ($3 million, -39%)
#8: Playing for Keeps ($2.7 million, -53%)
#9: Red Dawn ($2 million, -52%)
Flight ($2 million, -34%)
