Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Weekend Box Office Predictions for December 7-9, 2012...

The box office is currently in the calm before the Hobbit storm.  Overall business may only be on par with last year's poor frame...


The only new release of the frame is romantic comedy Playing for Keeps.  The movie does have modest starpower, with Gerard Butler, Jessica Biel, Catherine Zeta-Jones, Uma Thurman, and Dennis Quaid starring.  However, despite a modest marketing effort, distributor FilmDistrict/Open Road Films have had mixed results with their first movies.  Commercials haven't exactly excited audiences, reviews have been negative and buzz has only been so-so.  Keeps could open as high as last weekend's dud Killing Them Softly at best, but even that seems like a tough ceiling to climb to.  Opening in around 2,700 theaters, Keeps should open in sixth place with around $5.5 million, on its' way to around $15 million stateside.






With no serious competitors until next weekend, the top spot will likely go to a November holdover once again.  But it won't be Twilight this time (unless it shows unlikely strength this weekend).  This time it probably will go to Skyfall by default.  But Lincoln and Rise of the Guardians also have small chances of claiming the top spot (comparing past trajectories), but that all depends on how hard each film drops this weekend.  The James Bond movie should drop about 40% to roughly $10.5 million, for a $263 million gross in one month of release.  Guardians should hold on strong as family audiences begin catching up to holiday-related films around this time.  A 25% ease to $10 million would give the DreamWorks Animation film $61 million in 19 days and second place.  Steven Spielberg's historical drama will likely slip about 30%, giving it $9 million for a strong $97 million tally in one month of release and stay in third place.  Twilight will hold on better than previous weekends, and drop 50% to $8.5 million, for a $272 million gross in 24 days, dropping to fourth.  Rounding out the Top 5 will be Life of Pi which will hold on strong due to good word-of-mouth.  A slide near 35% to $8 million would give it $60 million in 19 days.

Here is the rest of the Top 10:

#7: Wreck-it Ralph ($4.5 million, -35%)
#8: Red Dawn ($3.5 million, -47%)
#9: Flight ($3 million, -33%)
#10: Killing Them Softly ($2.5 million, -63%)