I think I can say for everyone that my predictions for this Christmas season have so far been way off....but here are updated predictions for this weekend.
I think its' going to be a much closer race for #1 than I previously imagined. With a remarkable $18 million on Christmas Day, Les Miserables is well on its' way to a very strong six-day tally. Same goes for Django Unchained with its' $15 million Christmas Day gross. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey is remaining strong and will get a boost today and tomorrow. Plus Parental Guidance is very much overperforming after its' $6.5 million Christmas Day opening.
I think Hobbit will reclaim #1 tomorrow with families being more available, with around $16 million, followed by Miserables with a small dip to $15 million and Django with around $12.5 million. Guidance should earn around $8 million tomorrow. Thursday will see grosses dip a bit, with Hobbit remaining at #1 with $13 million, Miserables a close second with $11 million, Django with $9 million and Guidance back down to $6.5 million.
Should these trajectories be correct, Hobbit and Miserables will be in a real race for #1 over the weekend. But Peter Jackson's flick should edge the musical by the time the weekend is over because demand will be burnt off for the two major releases by then. I think Hobbit will earn probably around $15.5 million on Friday, on its' way to a $38 million weekend, or the same as last weekend. Miserables will likely take in $14 million on Friday and $34 million for the weekend. Django will follow in third with a $12 million Friday and $30 million weekend, and Guidance should come in fourth with a $8 million Friday and $20 million weekend.
Here is how I think the weekend will play out.
#1: The Hobbit - An Unexpected Journey ($38 million, +3%) ($250 million total)
#2: Les Miserables ($34 million) ($78 million six-day)
#3: Django Unchained ($30 million) ($66 million six-day)
#4: Parental Guidance ($20 million) ($40 million six-day)
#5: Jack Reacher ($16.5 million, +6%) ($52 million total)
#6: This is 40 ($14.5 million, +25%) ($41 million total)
#7: Monsters Inc. 3D ($8 million, +67%) ($21 million total)
#8: Rise of the Guardians ($7.5 million, +32%) ($94 million total)
#9: The Guilt Trip ($7 million, +30%) ($25 million total)
#10: Lincoln ($6.5 million, +14%) ($133 million total)
#11: Skyfall ($6 million, +28%) ($292 million total)
#12: Life of Pi ($5 million, +25%) ($87 million total)
#13: Cirque Du Soleil: Worlds Away ($4.5 million, +114%) ($11 million total)
