Its' that time of year again, the third weekend of November promising an installment from a blockbuster franchise, and for the second-straight year, its' going to the vampires...With strong holdovers and a finale hitting theaters, box office should most definitely be up from last year....
One of the years' highest-anticipated films hits theaters this weekend (as well as the years' second major franchise finale),
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II. The fifth and final
Twilight movie ends one of the biggest-grossing movie franchises of all-time. Considering finale trajectories generally opening higher than their predecessors, this
Twilight is well-positioned to break serious records this weekend. November 2012 has been strong in itself with
Wreck-it Ralph and
Skyfall debuting to huge numbers. Buzz has been through the roof and about on par with
The Hunger Games from earlier this year. The only thing holding this movie back from breaking
The Avengers record is that it isn't in 3D or IMAX, which will limit its' grosses to a degree. Overseas grosses should be huge though, and right now, a worldwide gross of $800 million or higher looks likely from this point. Early predictions are all over the board. My prediction is that this last
Twilight (opening in over 4,000 theaters), should debut to a monster
$152 million. Whether or not it holds the top spot over Thanksgiving is currently questionable, but it should play throughout the holidays and finish with $325 million or more stateside.
Meanwhile, the other new release is aiming for only a fraction of
Twilight's audience. Shot in my home state of Virginia (some of it in the city I grew up in [Richmond]), Steven Spielberg's
Lincoln expands nationwide this weekend. While most studios would shy away from the challenge of opening against a heavy-hitter, this movie actually is the right film to be competing against
Twilight. Its' older-skewing, which that audience won't show up for its' competition, plus, its' highly-anticipated and critically-acclaimed, which should help it. Last weekend, in just 11 locations, the movie earned an incredible $900,000 (per-theater average of $81,000!). This all bodes well for the drama. The only things holding it back are that some people are tired of politics (after the recent election), and, its' only debuting in 1,600 theaters. Distributor Touchstone Pictures/DreamWorks Pictures (through Disney) is confident they will keep expanding the film (it worked for
Flight). Look for
Lincoln to ride off with
$19 milllion this weekend, giving it fourth place for the weekend. It should benefit from awards season buzz afterwards and go on to gross $85-$90 million.
Skyfall was a beast last weekend, but its' questionable how hard it will drop this weekend. I do have a correction,
Skyfall did reach $100 million on Monday ahead of
Wreck-it Ralph, which surprisingly didn't get a lot of business that day.
Twilight's crowds will put a dent in the James Bond film's audience, as well as the fact that majority of its' audience already came out last weekend. But a glowing "A" CinemaScore should lighten the blow. A 55% drop to $40 million should result, giving the 23rd James Bond movie $156 million in just 10 days.
Wreck-It Ralph should continue to hold well with zero competition. A 30% dip to $23.5 million would give the animated comedy $128 million in 17 days. Rounding out the Top 5 will be
Flight, which should see a similar drop to last weekend with extra competition. A 40% drop to $9 million would give the Denzel Washington thriller $62 million in the same amount of time.
Here is the remainder of the Top 10:
#6:
Argo ($4.5 million, -33%)
#7:
Taken 2 ($2.7 million, -33%)
#8:
Here Comes The Boom ($1.8 million, -28%)
#9:
Pitch Perfect ($1.7 million, -31%)
#10:
Hotel Transylvania ($1.6 million, -33%)
