Thanksgiving Weekend Box Office Predictions....

Thanksgiving weekend is the weekend I have the most fun predicting and reporting because its' a five-day weekend and new films and holdovers do big business.  If my predictions are correct, 2012 will likely be up from 2011...

Out of all three new releases, DreamWorks Animation's Rise of the Guardians stands the best chance of unseating Twilight.  The final animated movie of 2012 has earned a solid amount of anticipation, as well as early solid word-of-mouth from preview screenings.  Guardians boasts a strong cast, including Alec Baldwin, Chris Pine, Hugh Jackman, and Jude Law, and its' based on a children's book series by renowned author William Joyce.  The animation in this movie looks amazing and critics have so far given it good reviews.  Guardians also is DWA's first original movie in two years (MegaMind) and their first movie debuting over the extended Thanksgiving frame (usually, Disney releases their movies on Thanksgiving frame).  Family movies always tend to do strongly over Thanksgiving weekend, with 2010's Tangled being the roof for these films, with a huge $68 million five-day opening.  Last year, three PG rated flicks opened, with The Muppets faring the best with a $41 million five-day start.  Where does Guardians stand on this?  The darker premise will likely scare away some sensitive, younger tykes, so Guardians probably won't reach Tangled's five-day opening.  However, I really have a strong feeling that this is going to break out.  While not exactly holiday-centric, Guardians does have Santa, plus, there's not much competition over the next month, so the movie should play well through the holidays. 3D should also help boost grosses.  Opening in over 3,500 theaters, Guardians should soar to $44 million over the three-day weekend and $61 million over the five-day frame.  With good playability expected, Guardians will likely close near $175 million, perhaps more if it shows typical Christmas legs.  (Note: This is the last DreamWorks Animation film to be released by Paramount, as 20th Century Fox takes over distribution next year).

Also competing not just for family audiences, but for mainstream audiences as well is book adaptation Life of Pi.  Legendary director Ang Lee filmed the foreign project in 3D and has gotten early Oscar buzz.  Critics have showered the movie with praise, and marketing has been solid.  However, it is a much tougher sell in the face of more appealing movies for kids.  In a way, its' a lot like last year's Hugo, another 3D family-aimed adventure that earned 11 Oscar nominations, and opened to $15 million over Thanksgiving weekend, on its' way to nearly five times that gross due to awards season buzz.  Pi, however, is a much more familiar book than The Invention of Hugo Cabret, and so far, it seems that anticipation is at a good level.  Whether or not it will draw younger kids (they'll probably be afraid of the tiger) I don't know, but it should at least be able to take in a solid amount.  Opening in around 2,700 theaters, Life of Pi should open to around $13 million over the three-day weekend and $18 million over the extended frame.  If it gets solid word-of-mouth and Hugo-like nominations, then a final gross of $75 million or higher wouldn't be surprising.

Finally, various stars come together for military action flick Red Dawn.  Featuring a strong cast that includes Chris Hemsworth (Thor, Snow White and the Huntsman, The Avengers), Josh Peck (Drake and Josh) and Josh Hutcherson (The Hunger Games, Journey movies), the movie actually has earned a huge amount of buzz over the last month.  But reviews have been mediocre at best, and despite seemingly strong fanfare, some social media sites have been extremely quiet for the movie.  Plus, war-themed movies are tough sells, with Act of Valor being the biggest one at $70 million, and it would take a miracle for Dawn to even come close to that movie's final gross.  Distributor FilmDistrict hasn't really pushed it in the promotional campaign, which will also slow it down.  In over 2,600 theaters, Red Dawn will likely take in $11 million for the three-day weekend and $14.5 million for the five-day frame, on its' way to $30-$35 million domestically.

As for The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II, it looks like it has a strong shot at holding the top spot.  Finales do tend to drop harder, though, even with the "A" CinemaScore.  A 60% drop to $55 million for the three-day weekend, along with around $75 million for the five-day weekend.  Through 10 days, the finale would have earned a huge $230 million.  Skyfall will probably hold a lot better with Red Dawn not being much of a threat.  A 45% drop to $23 million over the three-day might result, along with $33 million over the five-day and over $200 million in just 17 days.  Lincoln is expected to expand further, and is seeing strong word-of-mouth among older audiences, and little competition for that demographic should allow it to hold on strong.  A 30% dip to $15 million over the three-day and $21 million over the five-day would give it $46 million in three weeks.  Finally, Wreck-it Ralph will have competition to deal with, but should earn a bump from casual audiences.  MegaMind held well with Tangled on the market, and Puss in Boots got a bump even in the face of four competitors.  Ralph will likely perform similarly.  The animated comedy should ease 25% over the three-day weekend, giving it $14 million over the three-day and $19.5 million over the extended frame, for a $143 million tally in 24 days.

Here is the Top 10 for the 3-Day and 5-Day Thanksgiving Weekends:

3-DAY:

#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II ($55 million, -60%)

#2: Rise of the Guardians ($44 million)

#3: Skyfall ($23 million, -45%)

#4: Lincoln ($15 million, -30%)

#5: Wreck-It Ralph ($14 million, -25%)

#6: Life of Pi ($13 million)
#7: Red Dawn ($11 million)

#8: Flight ($6 million, -32%)

#9: Argo ($3 million, -25%)

#10: Taken 2 ($1.4 million, -33%)

5-DAY:

#1: The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part II ($75 million)

#2: Rise of the Guardians ($61 million)

#3: Skyfall ($33 million)

#4: Lincoln ($21 million)

#5: Wreck-It Ralph ($19.5 million)

#6: Life of Pi ($18 million)

#7: Red Dawn ($14.5 million)

#8: Flight ($9 million)

#9: Argo ($4.2 million)
#10: Taken 2 ($2.3 million)