Saturday, November 24, 2012

Thanksgiving Box Office Update #3: "Twilight" and "Skyfall" Pass $200 Million With Huge Fridays, "Guardians", "Pi" and "Red Dawn" See Huge Bumps, Thanksgiving Headed For All-Time Best...

Strong holdovers and decent-performing newcomers are guaranteeing this Thanksgiving to be the biggest one yet...

After earning estimates of $12.8 million and $8.05 million on Wednesday and Thursday, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn - Part II was up 116% to an estimated $17.4 million on Friday, for a three-day tally of $37.5 million.  The Friday gross was slightly ahead of Part I ($16.7 million), while the percentage jump was the same.  Through the same three-day period, Part I had picked up $36.8 million.  Following the same trajectory of its' predecessor, Part II should earn just slightly under that number on Saturday before dropping hard on Sunday.  Today, Part II passed $200 million, and is tracking $5.5 million ahead of its' predecessor, and already ranks ninth for the year on the domestic chart.  Part II should earn $43.5 million three-day frame.  The five-day estimate remains at $65 million.

Following earning an estimated $7.45 million and $7.7 million on Wednesday and Thursday, Skyfall jumped a slightly less 92% to an estimated $14.75 million on Friday.  The three-day tally is currently at roughly $30 million.  Based on its' good word-of-mouth, Skyfall should see a similar trajectory as other adult-skewing films do over Thanksgiving weekend.  The three-day weekend should find itself at $35.5 million, with the five-day estimate raised slightly to $51 million.

Following estimates of $4.2 million and $4.9 million over Wednesday and Thursday, Lincoln picked up in a huge way.  The Oscar contender was up a remarkable 105% to an estimated $10 million, for a three-day tally of $19.1 million.  Expect $24.5 million for the three-day weekend, and the five-day estimate has been raised to $33.5 million.

With families out in force on Black Friday, Rise of the Guardians did recover somewhat from its' lousy Wednesday-Thursday start.  DreamWorks Animation's latest leaped an incredible 150% from Thursday to an estimated $9.3 million, or about double what Arthur Christmas earned on its' first Friday.  One good note, Guardians' amazing jump is the biggest Thursday-Friday jump ever for a pre-Thanksgiving release, coming in ahead of Tangled's then-unheard of 142% Thursday-Friday jump.  But Guardians is far from being out of disappointing territory.  Adding in estimates of $4.85 million and $3.75 million on Wednesday and Thursday, and the three-day tally stands at just $17.8 million.  With a strong "A" CinemaScore, Guardians should see the same number on Saturday before dropping on Sunday.  Right now, I'm guessing $24 million for the three-day weekend, with the five-day estimate being raised to $33 million, and giving it a chance at taking third place from Lincoln.

Also impressing with family and mainstream audiences, Life of Pi was up a huge 97% to an estimated $8.9 million.  After estimates of $3.7 million and $4.5 million on Wednesday and Thursday, the movie has earned an estimated $17.1 million in three days.  With an "A-" CinemaScore and competition factored in, Pi should wind up with $22 million over the three-day weekend, with the five-day estimate raised to $30 million.

As shocking as this is, Guardians didn't see the biggest jump of all the movies.  That honor goes to its' biggest competitor, Wreck-it Ralph, which found itself in sixth place on Friday.  The animated hit lept a massive 170% to an estimated $6.8 million on Friday.  That's much better than MegaMind's $5.25 million Friday, and a bit bigger than its' 158% Thursday-Friday jump.  Keeping that films' trajectory in mind, Ralph is headed for a