Out of all four new releases hitting theaters, the one with the best chance of breaking out is action thriller Cloud Atlas. Boasting a top-shelf cast that includes Tom Hanks and Hallie Berry, the movie has received moderate buzz over the last month. Distributor Warner Bros. has pulled out the stops in their marketing campaign, and awareness does appear to be high. But despite good critical reception by far, the film's R rating will likely limit its' audience. Also, the movie is close to three hours long, which means theaters won't be able to fit in a lot of showtimes every day. One other major disadvantage is that WB is only releasing it in just under 2,000 locations, which also will put a dent in its' grosses. But the movie's sci-fi elements look appealing enough, and even if it doesn't do well stateside, it should make a lot of money overseas. Look for Atlas to narrowly win the weekend with $14 million, on its' way to around $45 million stateside (if word-of-mouth can carry it that far).Also opening is long-awaited sequel and video game adaptation Silent Hill: Revelation, which arrives six years after the original Silent Hill, which was able to collect nearly $100 million worldwide ($120 million adjusted for inflation). The movie has been with-held from critics by far so reception isn't expected to be positive. There is some buzz, but it's nowhere near the anticipation levels of Paranormal Activity 4 or Sinister. Those two movies alone will provide stiff competition, and audiences may not be up for seeing an additional horror flick after those two. 3D surcharges will contribute though, and with its' released timed closely to Halloween, this Silent Hill should be able to land at the high end of the average range for horror films. Opening in around 3,000 theaters, Silent Hill: Revelation should collect $12 million for the weekend, which will put it in a race for second place with Paranormal Activity 4 and Argo. With Halloween the following Wednesday, expect it to crash hard over the next month, and finish with roughly $25 million.
Also looking to earn as much money as possible before the famous holiday next week is teen comedy Fun Size. Starring Victoria Justice of the hit TV show Victorious, the PG-13 film is getting some moderate buzz. Teen-oriented films are a mixed bag, though, with the most successful being 17 Again three years ago. Besides Justice, there's no other real starpower which could hurt it. Like most of its' compadres, the movie has been held back from critics (not a good sign). And despite not much competition for its' demographic over the next month, Fun Size will likely be front-loaded due to the reason I had said up top. Opening in around 2,800 theaters, the movie should conjure up $8 million for the weekend (debuting in sixth place) and it will be lucky to close with $20 million stateside.
The final new release isn't looking like its' going to be successful either. Surfing drama Chasing Mavericks is the latest true story-based drama headed to the big screen, this one being based on the daredevil surfer Jay Moriarty. While having modest anticipation, Mavericks hasn't gotten a real promotional push from distributor 20th Century Fox. In a way its' situation is similar to last month's Won't Back Down, another movie that Fox had no confidence in and only managed $5 million in its' entire run. This movie should fare much better though because of the broader appeal surfing movies have. Last year, Soul Surfer, another true story film, was a huge hit at close to $45 million in its' entire run. Starpower is pretty good with Gerard Butler, Elizabeth Shue and Abigail Spencer starring, and the PG rating could bring in families that have already seen Hotel Transylvania and others. Opening in around 2,000 theaters, Chasing Mavericks could earn $6 million this weekend, on its' way to around $20 million stateside (if word-of-mouth gets it there).
Paranormal Activity 4 will likely drop hard this weekend with new competition and mixed word-of-mouth. The question is, how hard? With the Halloween holiday coming up, that should cushion the blow a bit. A 55% decline to $13 million would give it $48 million in 10 days. Argo had a remarkable hold last weekend, but with Cloud Atlas arriving, it probably won't hold as well this time around. A 30% drop to $11.5 million would give the thriller $59 million in 17 days. Hotel Transylvania will have its' last hurrah this weekend before the Halloween holiday and the highly-anticipated Wreck-It Ralph arriving next weekend, so another 25% decline to roughly $10 million might result, giving the animated hit $131 million in one month of release.
Here is the Top 10 list:
#1: Cloud Atlas ($14 million)
#2: Paranormal Activity 4 ($13 million, -56%)
#3: Silent Hill: Revelation ($12 million)
#4: Argo ($11.5 million, -31%)
#5: Hotel Transylvania ($10 million, -23%)
#6: Fun Size ($8 million)
#7: Taken 2 ($7.5 million, -43%)
#8: Chasing Mavericks ($6 million)
#9: Here Comes The Boom ($5.5 million, -35%)
#10: Sinister ($4 million, -55%)
