Well, its' that time of year again. Paranormal Activity 4 releases this weekend. The horror fourquel (only the second horror franchise to make it to a fourth movie after the Saw movies) has had strong buzz over the last month. The franchise itself has been one of the most impressive box office performers I have seen to date. The first movie had a budget of just $25,000, and earned $19 million in just under 800 theaters on its' debut weekend. Word-of-mouth got around on this one, causing it to close with over $100 million. The following year, there was more scares, with the second movie opening even bigger at $42 million, on its' way to just $85 million (and wasn't liked very much). There were doubts heading into the third film, but with very little competition, the third one broke out this same weekend last year with a monster $53 million start, on its' way to the same league as the first one. Now they may not be blockbusters, but the movies have been surprisingly consistent and not suffering from the sequel-itis other major sequels have suffered. But will audiences come out again for this?? That's a big question mark. Despite some strong anticipation, fan inflation could have effect on this film. Also, fourth installments have never lived up to their predecessors (the only exception, Fast and the Furious back in 2009), and critical reception hasn't been positive. Sinister had a great debut last weekend, and that will be in its' way as well. Opening in over 3,000 theaters, the 4th Paranormal Activity will likely scare up about $44 million this weekend, on its' way to $85-$90 million stateside.
But that's not the only film opening this weekend. Hoping to successfully counter-program the horror flick is Tyler Perry action thriller/comic adaptation Alex Cross. Distributor Summit Entertainment (who merged with Lionsgate) has been doing a fine job with the promotional campaign, and older and non-horror audiences should find something in this. But the R rating may make it a tougher sell to the character's comic book fans, and Perry's audience. The best example is 2010's For Colored Girls (which didn't have Perry acting), which opened to just shy of $20 million. But Cross is opening on a much more difficult weekend, and the crowds that will see Paranormal Activity will very much outweigh this one. Critical reception hasn't been that bright either. Opening in around 2,400 locations, look for Alex Cross to shoot up $13 million, just enough for second place. I don't see it grossing more than $35 million stateside.
That leaves three of last week's Top 4 to battle for the remaining spots in the Top 5. Out of all of them, however, it seems like Argo has the best chance of taking the third spot. Positive word-of-mouth will help it, so a 30% slide to $13 million would give it $39 million in 10 days. Hotel Transylvania won't be far behind, as no competition for family audiences plus the approach of Halloween guarantees a strong hold this weekend. A 30% dip to $12.5 million would give the animated comedy $117 million in four weeks. Last week's topper Taken 2 will likely plunge down to fifth place, with a better hold than last frame but still a bit steep. A 45% decline should be in order, giving the action sequel $11.5 million and $104 million in three weeks.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Here Comes The Boom ($8 million, -32%)
#7: Sinister ($6 million, -67%)
#8: Pitch Perfect ($5.5 million, -40%)
#9: Frankenweenie ($5 million, -29%)
#10: Looper ($3.5 million, -42%)
