Among the new releases, thriller Argo has the best chance at unseating Taken 2 for #1. The Ben Affleck film has received quite a bunch of attention over the last month, with critical acclaim and solid anticipation. However, the movie has drawn a bit of controversy for its' Iranian Revolution story. Affleck has proven he is a box office draw, with his last film The Town being acclaimed by critics and earning $24 million on its' debut, on its' way to $90 million stateside (it was shut out by the Oscars though despite analysts expecting it to be nominated for Best Picture). The controversy surrounding it right now probably will keep Argo from matching Town's opening, but it should still do solidly in its' own right. Opening in over 3,250 theaters, Argo should earn $18 million this weekend, on its' way to around $55 million domestically (perhaps higher if word-of-mouth permits it).
Also opening and aiming for family audiences is sports comedy Here Comes The Boom, starring Kevin James. James has proven to be a draw for families in the past, with Paul Blart: Mall Cop ($130 million) and Zookeeper ($80 million), but unlike those, which were strictly comedies, this one leans more on the dramatic side. Also those two opened either on an extended weekend or during the summer, so Boom will most likely not come close to those films' final grosses. It will have to compete with Hotel Transylvania and Frankenweenie, but those two are animated, so they shouldn't affect its' audience too much. James' only misfire so far is 2010's The Dilemma (but that was for adults). Chasing Mavericks will serve as competition in two weeks, while reviews will likely be negative (its' been held back from critics so far). Opening in over 3,000 theaters, Here Comes The Boom should be able to punch up $16 million this weekend, on its' way to $50 million or so.
Next up is horror flick Sinister, which has actually gotten the most buzz out of all the new releases. But that will likely be due to bustling fan inflation. Despite a good marketing campaign by distributor Lionsgate/Summit Entertainment and solid anticipation and critical reception, Sinister is opening in almost the worst weekend of the year (for its' genre). It will have to deal with Paranormal Activity 4 next weekend and Silent Hill: Revelation the weekend after that. Basically, Sinister only has seven days to make money, and audiences may very well skip this one in favor of the more highly-anticipated one next weekend. Opening in around 2,500 theaters, Sinister should collect about $13 million this weekend, on its' way to roughly $25 million.
Finally, comedy Seven Psychopaths will be settling for scraps. The English comedy hasn't been pushed very hard by distributor CBS Films (who has been quiet this year). Despite acclaim from critics, the film just is going to be inconsequential in the face of competition. Debuting in just 1,475 theaters, Seven Psychopaths will likely settle for just $4.5 million this weekend, and will be lucky to reach $10 million by the time it leaves theaters.
With its' huge $50 million debut, Taken 2 looks set to keep the top spot, but that all depends on how hard it drops and how well Argo does. Word-of-mouth isn't as positive as it was with its' predecessor, and sequels do tend to fade faster than their predecessors. A 55% drop to $22 million would give the film $88 million in 10 days. Hotel Transylvania should continue to hold well despite Here Comes The Boom posing as competition. Another 35% drop to $17.5 million would give the animated hit $102 million in 17 days.
Here is a look at the Top 10:
#1: Taken 2 ($22.3 million, -55%)
#2: Argo ($18 million)
#3: Hotel Transylvania ($17.4 million, -35%)
#4: Here Comes The Boom ($16 million)
#5: Sinister ($13 million)
#6: Pitch Perfect ($9.5 million, -36%)
#7: Frankenweenie ($7.5 million, -35%)
#8: Looper ($7 million, -43%)
#9: Seven Psychopaths ($4.5 million)
#10: End of Watch ($2.5 million, -38%)
