Weekend Box Office Predictions for October 5-7, 2012

Overall box office should remain up from last year...


Positioned to take the top spot this weekend, Liam Neeson is back in action sequel Taken 2.  Following three and a half years after the original Taken, that movie opened to a modest $24 million.  But it showed incredible sustainability, going on to finish with close to six times that amount.  Audiences do seem to be clamoring to see this (buzz has been extremely high), and distributor 20th Century Fox has done a great job with the marketing.  Since the original Taken, Neeson has become an action star, starring in Clash of the Titans and scored two hits over the past two years with Unknown and The Grey.  Critics, however, have slapped it with negative reviews.  The movie will have to deal with the second weekend of Looper and will probably take a hit next weekend with the buzzed-about Argo, but with strong buzz, a strong opening is guaranteed, mostlikely higher than its' predecessor.  But since audiences tend to rush out earlier for a sequel, it may not match its' predecessors' final gross.  Opening in over 3,000 theaters, Taken 2 should take in $35 million this weekend, on its' way to about $110 million or so.

Also opening this weekend is the latest from Tim Burton, stop-motion animated film Frankenweenie.  The film is highly-anticipated within Burton's fanbase, but Disney has done a fine job with the marketing campaign, with quite a lot of TV commercials and other things.  Critical reception has been quite positive, and the film should hold well through Halloween.  However, one thing that wasn't counted on was Hotel Transylvania's huge opening last weekend, and that will likely take away some of this films' potential.  Also, the black-and-white animation and odd-looking characters will likely not be of interest for younger kids.  In terms of recent stop-motion films, ParaNorman is set to finish at around $55 million, while The Pirates! Band of Misfits only managed to gross just north of $30 million and Coraline is the biggest-grossing one yet at just over $75 million.  Burton also has done movies in the format with The Nightmare Before Christmas ($50 million) and Corpse Bride ($53 million).  With the anticipation being decent, Frankenweenie should wind up in the high end of the range for its' genre.  Playing in over 2,900 theaters, Frankenweenie should scare up $20 million for its' debut (good enough for third place), on its' way to around $60 million.


Expanding into over 2,800 locations, Pitch Perfect had a great start in limited release last weekend, earning $5.2 million.  Buzz does seem to be high for the musical comedy, and reviews have been positive, plus not much competition for the female audience should help this do well.  Expect around $12 million this weekend, and for it to finish its' run in the $35-$40 million range (perhaps more if it can benefit from word-of-mouth).

Following its' truly monstrous debut last weekend, Hotel Transylvania will probably flinch a little bit in the face of Frankenweenie, and its' more cartoony look (compared to its' competition) will likely keep its' drop below 50%.  A 40% drop to $25.5 million would give the movie a solid $75 million in 10 days.

Here is the entire list:

#1: Taken 2 ($35 million)
#2: Hotel Transylvania ($25.5 million, -40%)
#3: Frankenweenie ($20 million)
#4: Pitch Perfect ($12 million)
#5: Looper ($11.5 million, -45%)
#6: Trouble with the Curve ($4.5 million, -38%)
#7: End of Watch ($4 million, -49%)
#8: House at the End of the Street ($3.5 million, -51%)
#9: Finding Nemo 3D ($2.5 million, -37%)
#10: The Master ($1.8 million, -33%)