The movie with the best chance to take the #1 spot is animated monster flick Hotel Transylvania. In a year of ups and downs for animation, Hotel does come in with a good chance of breaking out, since there hasn't been any original movies for families in over a month. Plus there's a lot of A-level talent in this film, with Adam Sandler, Selena Gomez, Andy Samberg and Kevin James leading a cast of major headliners. Plus, the marketing has been extensive, so awareness is pretty high. However, Sony Pictures Animation has yet to have a major animated hit, as only two of their films have passed $100 million stateside (Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs and The Smurfs). Also, original animated films opening in September or October usually struggle at the box office (the only exception being Cloudy). Plus, Disney's Frankenweenie opens next weekend and will likely take away some of its' audience, and younger kids not into monsters will show up for Nemo instead. Opening in over 3,300 theaters, expect Hotel Transylvania to take in about $24 million this weekend. It should then play through October and go on to gross around $75-$80 million by the time its' said and done.
Also opening is futuristic action flick Looper. Starring Bruce Willis, the film has been highly-anticipated within Willis' fanbase and other groups. Distributor TriStar Pictures (owner Sony is distributing the top two movies this weekend!) has done a fine job with the promotion campaign in order to raise excitement. Willis is one of today's biggest action stars, and his fanbase will likely show up. But there's other starpower in the film as well with Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Emily Blunt and Jeff Daniels co-starring. The film has received critical acclaim, with 92% of critics on Rotten Tomatoes giving it a positive review. However, the R rating the film carries may limit its' audience. Opening in around 2,800 theaters, Looper should tally a decent $18 million this weekend, on its' way to around $50-$55 million domestically if word-of-mouth is good.
The last new release isn't looking nearly as strong. Inspirational family drama Won't Back Down is hoping to successfully counter-program the other new releases. The movie does have a lot going for it, with good starpower (Maggie Gyllenhaal, Viola Davis, and Holly Hunter) and a similar true events-based kind of appeal that made Soul Surfer, Dolphin Tale and Secretariat sleeper hits the last couple of years. Unfortunately for this title, however, excitement isn't very high, and critical reception has been negative. If anything, the movie will probably draw in older females and kids not interested in cartoons. If word-of-mouth happens to be positive, then it could see similar legs to the three movies I mentioned, and distributor 20th Century Fox has done an okay job with the marketing. Opening in around 2,500 theaters, Won't Back Down will likely have to settle for around $8 million this weekend, which should be enough for third place. It will likely leave theaters with $25-$30 million.The holdovers don't look like they're in for good holds. End of Watch and Trouble with the Curve will likely fight for the fourth spot, but I'm going to give the edge to the baseball drama, which should benefit from word-of-mouth. A 40% drop to $7.5 million would give it $23 million in 10 days. The cop action flick will likely drop 45% (in the face of Looper) to around $7 million, for a $25 million tally in the same amount of time and rounding out the Top 5.
Here's a look at the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Finding Nemo (3D) ($5.5 million, -43%)
#7: House at the End of the Street ($5 million, -59%)
#8: The Master ($3.5 million, -30%)
#9: Resident Evil: Retribution ($3 million, -55%)
#10: Dredd ($2.5 million, -60%)
