The movie with the best potential this weekend is baseball drama Trouble with the Curve. Starring Clint Eastwood, Amy Adams, Justin Timberlake and John Goodman, the film does boast strong starpower. One great comparison for the film is Moneyball, which opened this same weekend last year to $19.5 million and went on to gross $70 million as well as get multiple Oscar nominations (including Best Picture). Reviews, while generally positive, haven't been as good as that film, add in the fact that its' aiming for the older audience (which doesn't normally come out on opening weekend), and it may be a struggle for it to match that films' opening weekend. Still though, interest appears to be high and positive word-of-mouth could give it a very solid run. Opening in over 3,100 theaters, Curve might throw a pitch worth $16 million this weekend, enough to take the #1 spot. It should then see decent legs, on its' way to around $60 million stateside.Giving Curve a run for its' money, horror flick House at the End of the Street is hoping to be the next Possession. And despite receiving a good amount of buzz (mainly due to the presence of Hunger Games' star Jennifer Lawrence), it does appear it has a decent-sized fanbase. However, Possession debuted on a weekend when horror flicks were completely absent, whereas House is debuting after that film and Resident Evil 5, which will take away some of the potential gross (and keep it from the #1 spot). As of now, the film hasn't been shown for critics (not a good sign). Opening in around 2,600 theaters, House could spook up a decent $12 million, on its' way to a modest $25-$30 million stateside.
The most ambitious of the new releases is 3D action flick Dredd. Following on the heels of Resident Evil 5, the movie has generated a healthy amount of interest, but it appears that audiences that saw Evil may not show up a second-straight weekend. One good thing working for Dredd is that reviews have been very positive, which should help it. However, 3D action epics rarely succeed, and despite early predictions (about a month ago) projecting it to top the newcomers, it doesn't seem like that's in store anymore. Opening in just over 2,400 theaters, Dredd may find itself in fourth place with around $10.5 million (in line with last year's Conan The Barbarian), on its' way to around $25-$30 million stateside.
The final new release has the weakest chance. Cop action flick End of Watch does have a lot of stuff going for it. Stars Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Pena have starred in their share of hits. Plus critical reception has reviewed it quite positively and buzz has been noticeable. However, distributor Open Road Films has not given the film a significant marketing push, which means it's fanbase will be pretty limited, plus the amount of competition this weekend is quite extensive. Perhaps the best example is Killer Elite (Open Road's first film), which opened to $9 million on this same weekend last year. Expect similar numbers. Opening in over 2,700 theaters, End of Watch should shoot up $9 million this weekend, which should give it fifth place for the weekend.
One of the weekend's big questions is how hard Resident Evil: Retribution will drop this weekend. Sequels do tend to drop harder, and it looks like audience reception is mediocre at best. A 60% plunge to $8.5 million would give the fifth installment $36 million in 10 days. Finding Nemo's 3D re-release will more than likely jump ahead of it and should hold on strong due to zero competition for families. A 30% drop to roughly $12 million would give the Pixar classic a respectable $33 million in 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#7: The Possession ($3 million, -49%)
#8: Lawless ($2.1 million, -31%)
#9: ParaNorman ($2 million, -33%)
#10: The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($1.8 million, -28%)
