I have been on vacation this week, so I haven't had a chance to keep up with the blog as of late...
______________________________________________________________________________________________________
The seasonal previews will now be done in five parts (Winter [January-February], Spring [March-April], Summer [May-August], Fall [September-October], and Holiday [November-December]).
The first weekend of September doesn't have much to offer. The inspirational drama The Words, which was added to the calendar just three months ago, does boast starpower with Bradley Cooper, Zoe Saldana, Jeremy Irons and Olivia Wilde, but despite a modest promotional push, it doesn't really have the excitement factor. Lionsgate/Summit made a last-minute decision recently to release action flick The Cold Light of Day nationwide, which has seen no advertising as of late. Expect The Possession to remain #1 as The Words and The Cold Light of Day earn between $3 and $6 million on their debut.
Things do start to revert back to normal the second weekend of the month. Battling for first place will be supernatural horror Resident Evil: Retribution and the 3D re-release of the Pixar classic Finding Nemo. Retribution is the fifth installment in the hit series, as the series was successfully rebooted by the $60 million gross of Afterlife two years ago. With a good promotional campaign and not much competition, and this one could get similar numbers. Nemo opens a year after The Lion King's 3D re-release earned $30 million on its' debut weekend, and that movie would ultimately close just under $100 million stateside. With no competition for family audiences that weekend, it would make sense if Nemo earned similar numbers. However, 3D re-releases haven't been as successful this year as what Lion King was last year (Titanic earned close to $60 million, while Beauty and the Beast and Star Wars Episode I settled closer to $45 million). Expect both Resident Evil and Finding Nemo to be in a heated battle with debuts north of $20 million.
The next weekend seems extremely competitive. Looking to vie for the #1 spot are 3D sci-fi action pic Dredd and baseball drama Trouble with the Curve. Sci-fi pics are tough sells, but Dredd has had a lot of anticipation leading up to its' release. Curve boasts a strong cast including the legendary Clint Eastwood and recent Oscar-winning actress Amy Adams. Plus a strong marketing campaign (foul language and all...) and releasing in close timing to the World Series could make it a nice-sized hit. Hunger Games' star Jennifer Lawrence headlines horror flick House at the End of the Street, which may not open high due to competition from Resident Evil 5,
and Jake Gyllenhaal stars in action drama End of Watch which really hasn't gotten a promotional push despite modest anticipation. All four movies should debut higher than $10 million, which Dredd and Curve looking for debuts closer to $20 million.
The last weekend of September is looking pretty interesting. The #1 spot will once again be a close race, this time between animated 3D halloween comedy Hotel Transylvania and Bruce Willis and Joseph Gordon-Levitt action thriller Looper. Transylvania boasts a strong voice cast led by Adam Sandler, Selena Gomez, Andy Samberg, and Kevin James, and is the second of three major Halloween animated films this year. However, with Disney getting into the act the following weekend (and two weekends prior), it may be tough for this to succeed. Willis is a bankable star and based on its' promotional campaign, Looper is already getting lots of attention, and it the only real true-blue action pic on the market this month (End of Watch and Cold Light of Day are more independent). Meanwhile, the other new release, PG-rated true-story based drama Won't Back Down is hoping to get older women, which it might succeed at, on a minor scale. Both Transylvania and Looper should top $20 million for their debuts in the race for #1.
October kicks off with many new releases. The winner is likely to be Liam Neeson's action sequel Taken 2, which follows up on the positively-recieved (and very leggy, $26 million opening to $150 million finish) film. However, sequels don't always live up to their predecessors unless if it is received the same way. Also in the running is Disney and Tim Burton's stop-motion animated spook tale Frankenweenie, which should also have solid business. Burton is famous for Corpse Bride and The Nightmare Before Christmas, and Disney has given it a solid promotional push. However, its' in black-and-white, and the characters do look odd and/or creepy. Also releasing are musical comedy Pitch Perfect and horror flick Sinister, which likely will both be inconsequential due to being last-minute additions to the calendar. Taken 2 and Frankenweenie will both debut north of $20 million, with Taken 2 possibly reaching $25 million and the #1 spot.
The following weekend brings Ben Affleck's next film Argo, which is already seeing a bunch of attention, as Affleck had a huge hit two years ago with The Town ($90 million). Also releasing are Kevin James action comedy Here Comes The Boom, which may be more for families than fans of his show King of Queens (but James isn't a bankable star as shown by last year's The Dilemma). Finally, the dark horse, Seven Psychopaths is hoping for counter-programming, but likely won't succeed. Argo could approach $20 million, very much enough for #1. The other two releases probably won't come close.
Easily the most-anticipated movie of the season, Paranormal Activity 4 is the latest in a string of hugely-successful horror flicks that have had tiny budgets ($20,000 to $1 million to $3 million). The previous installment earned a huge $56 million on opening weekend, on its' way to just north of $100 million stateside, but short of the first movie. Based on recent trajectories, don't expect this installment to do as well, as fourquels never do as well as their predecessors, but a large debut should still be expected. The other new releases, crime thrillers Alex Cross and Killing Them Softly both have yet to get a promotional push, but the latter should pull ahead with Brad Pitt starring. Paranormal Activity 4 will take the #1 spot with an opening of around $40 million.
The final week of October features four new releases, each going after different audiences. The one with the best chance of taking the #1 spot is 3D horror flick Silent Hill: Revelation, which arrives at least a decade after the original Silent Hill. A long lapse of time may not do this one well, but surcharges and the Halloween holiday coming up should guarantee decent numbers. Tom Hanks, Hallie Berry and Hugh Grant all star in mystery/sci-fi flick Cloud Atlas, which is the dark horse of the group. Starpower and an interesting approach may make this solid counter-programming for the horror flicks dominating multiplexes. Settling for scraps are true story-based sports drama Chasing Mavericks and teen comedy Fun Size. Silent Hill will probably be the only one to break out with between $10 and $15 million on its' debut, but it may not be enough to unseat Paranormal Activity 4 (if it opens higher than expected).
