The film with the biggest potential this weekend is action reboot The Bourne Legacy. Arriving five years after The Bourne Ultimatum was a huge hit, earning $69 million on its' opening weekend on its' way to over $200 million domestically, there's just one big difference. Jeremy Renner is starring instead of Matt Damon. That could hurt the films' potential, as Damon is arguably a more bankable star. However, Renner has co-starred in recent box office hits such as The Avengers and Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol, and it does seem like his fanbase has grown. Plus the Bourne franchise is popular enough that many fans will still likely show up. Reviews have been mixed-to-positive, and the marketing campaign has been strong. While I don't expect similar results to its' predecessor, the film should still be one of the more positive stories of the summer. Opening in over 3,600 theaters, expect The Bourne Legacy to take in $45 million for its' debut, well more than enough to take the top spot. A $125 million final gross should be expected.
Also opening is the latest R-rated comedy to hit the streets, The Campaign. The film stars Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis in a political race. Unfortunately, the R-rated comedy genre hasn't succeeded this year, other than Ted, which is still in the Top 10 in its' seventh weekend. Fortunately though, both Ferrell and Galifianakis are bankable stars, both starring in their own share of successes. There's also zero competition over the next several weeks, so it has a good chance at breaking out. Reviews have been generally negative, while anticipation is relatively modest. Opening in over 3,200 theaters, The Campaign might find $21 million on its' final ballot, and if it gets good word-of-mouth, it might finish with $65 million domestically.
Meanwhile, opening today, romantic comedy Hope Springs is hoping to provide strong counter-programming to the other major releases. The movie has a strong cast, with Meryl Streep, Tommy Lee Jones and Steve Carell headlining. Anticipation is actually pretty decent, while reviews have been mixed. Plus, a much lower theater count may not help either. But there hasn't been a real date night movie in theaters for a while, and this could draw a nice crowd. Now playing in over 2,200 theaters, Hope Springs should court around $5 million in its' first two days, and an additional $15 million over the weekend, putting it in fourth place for the weekend. It should then go on to be a $45-$50 million domestic finisher, perhaps higher if it can snag positive word-of-mouth.The Dark Knight Rises will surrender the top spot, and more competition will likely make it drop a little harder this weekend. A 45% dip to $19 million might result, giving the threequel $389 million in 24 days. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be Total Recall, which is all-but-set to drop hard this weekend due to its' lackluster word-of-mouth and competition. A 60% fall to $10 million would give the sci-fi remake a poor $46 million in just 10 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days ($7.5 million, -48%)
#7: Ice Age: Continental Drift ($6 million, -30%)
#8: Ted ($3.5 million, -37%)
#9: The Watch ($3 million, -54%)
#10: The Amazing Spider-Man ($2.6 million, -40%)
