Despite two seemingly weak new releases, box office should still be up from last year as the Summer movie season starts to draw to a close...
Out of the two new releases, action thriller Premium Rush looks to have the best chance at breaking out. Starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt, the movie has seen an extensive marketing campaign over the last few weeks, and it does seem the movie has a decent amount of anticipation. Critical reception has been mixed, and the film will have to compete against The Expendables 2's second weekend as well as The Bourne Legacy's third weekend. Scheduled to open in around 2,100 theaters, Rush should collect $9 million for the weekend, which I think will be good enough for third or fourth place. It should then go on to gross $25-$30 million domestically.
Opening today, romantic action comedy Hit and Run is hoping to take advantage of the R-rated comedy crowd that worked wonders with Ted, Magic Mike and The Campaign. Unfortunately though, while it has some anticipation, the starpower isn't that great, with Kristen Bell headlining (she has yet to prove herself except for being in supporting roles). Also starring is Parenthood's Dax Shepard and broadway star/actress Kristen Chenoweth. The movie hasn't done much for its' promotional campaign and its' critical reception is so far negative. Debuting in 2,700 theaters, Hit and Run may collect roughly $2.5 million over the Wednesday-Thursday period, and another $7 million over the weekend, for a $9.5 million five-day start and putting it in sixth or seventh place. It may finish between $20 and $25 million.
Its' going to be a tight race for second through seventh place this weekend. But its' more than likely that The Expendables 2 will hold the top spot. Positive word-of-mouth will likely show off a strong second frame. A 50% drop to roughly $14.5 million would give the action sequel $53 million in 10 days. Second place will either be The Bourne Legacy or ParaNorman, but I'm going to give the edge to the animated horror for there not being any competition for kids. A 35% drop to $9.5 million would give the film close to $30 million in 10 days. The action reboot may fall by around 45% to the same number, giving it $85 million in 17 days, well on its' way past the $100 million mark.
Rounding out the Top 5 should be The Campaign, which will face new competition from Hit and Run. But it should hold better this time around, so a 45% ease to over $7 million may result, giving the comedy $65 million in 17 days, on its' way to $80 million or better.
Since things are a bit confusing this weekend, here is how I believe the Top 10 will play out:
#1: The Expendables 2 ($14.3 million, -50%)
#2: ParaNorman ($9.4 million, -34%)
#3: The Bourne Legacy ($9.2 million, -45%)
#4: Premium Rush ($8.9 million)
#5: The Campaign ($7.2 million, -45%)
#6: Hit and Run ($7 million)
#7: The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($6.5 million, -40%)
#8: Sparkle ($6.3 million, -46%)
#9: The Dark Knight Rises ($6 million, -46%)
#10: Hope Springs ($5.6 million, -39%)
