Even though there are three new releases, box office should be down from last year...
The new release with the best potential is horror flick The Possession. The main reason is quite obvious, there's been no horror films on the market (at least in wide release) for the entire summer (and yes, technically, Prometheus doesn't count). Audiences have been waiting for it, and horror flicks do have the tendency to do well over extended weekends. The reviews have been negative, but audiences will likely ignore that. But with the genre's audience usually being limited, I don't think this will be nearly as big as The Devil Inside, but it should at least be able to top The Expendables 2 this weekend. Opening in over 2,700 theaters on Friday, Apparition should earn a solid $12 million over the three-day period, and $14.5 million over the extended frame. It should then crash to around $30 million stateside.
Opening today, Lawless is hoping to also be a hit. Its' gotten some critical attention, and it does have starpower with Shia LaBeouf, Tom Hardy, Gary Oldman and Jessica Chastain, but the marketing campaign really hasn't been in full force. As a Western though (and the fact that it was at the Cannes Film Festival this year) should guarantee a solid turn-out. Now playing in 2,565 theaters, Lawless will likely shoot up $9 million for the three-day period, and $11.5 million for the extended period, on its' way to $25-$30 million stateside.
The other new release will just barely make it into the Top 10. The Oogieloves in The Big Balloon Adventure is actually lucky to get into wide release. There's no major distributor despite the fact that its' been promoted quite nicely. But the bad news is, most kids are probably likely to avoid it. The three characters have appeared in commercials prior to this, but they didn't receive a bunch of attention. Basically, with the exception of kids under age 5 and their parents, no one's gonna see this. But Labor Day Weekend does tend to play well with family flicks, and the movie did open today. So now playing in 2,160 theaters, Oogieloves will likely charm just $4 million this weekend, $5.5 million over the four-day holiday and $6.5 million since its' Wednesday start. A final gross in the $15 million range seems likely.
Now, I'm just going to report a chart below. Obviously the family movies (ParaNorman, The Odd Life of Timothy Green) will likely receive the biggest boosts, while the more adult-oriented movies (The Expendables 2, The Campaign) will likely fall the hardest.
#1: The Apparition ($12 million three-day, $14.5 million four-day)
#2: Lawless ($9 million three-day, $11.5 million four-day)
#3: The Expendables 2 ($7.5 million (-44%) three-day, $10 million four-day)
#4: ParaNorman ($7 million (-19%) three-day, $9.5 million four-day)
#5: The Odd Life of Timothy Green ($6 million (-18%) three-day, $8.5 million four-day)
#6: The Bourne Legacy ($5.7 million (-39%) three-day, $7.5 million four-day)
#7: The Dark Knight Rises ($5 million (-31%) three-day, $7 million four-day)
#8: The Campaign ($4.5 million (-39%) three-day, $6 million four-day)
#9: 2016 - Obama's America ($4.3 million (-36%) three-day, $5.5 million four-day)
#10: The OogieLoves in the Big Balloon Adventure ($4 million three-day, $5.5 million four-day)
