Sorry this is very late, I haven't had much access to the internet this week, overall box office should be close to last year...
The strongest of the two new releases is ensemble R-rated comedy The Watch. The film does boast good starpower, with Ben Stiller, Jonah Hill, and Vince Vaughn headlining. Promotion has been strong over the last couple of weeks, and anticipation seems modest. Plus, with Ted and Magic Mike starting to make their way out of theaters, the field is almost wide open for the comedy (though the same could be said to The Dictator and That's My Boy, both of which under-performed). Reviews haven't been very good, but that won't be a factor. Now playing in 3,168 theaters, The Watch should take second place and $25 million for its' debut, on its' way to around $80 million stateside.
Also debuting this weekend is Step Up: Revolution. The fourth installment in the popular Step Up series is hoping to counter-program The Dark Knight Rises by taking away any potential teenagers who might see the blockbuster again this weekend. However, fourth installments rarely ever succeed, and the last installment, Step Up 3-D, only winded up with just over $40 million stateside, and had about half the attendance of the first two movies. Plus, unlike the first three movies which were distributed by Disney, this one is being released by Summit Entertainment, who hasn't had even a smidgen as good of a tracking record. However, promotion has been high, and negative reception from critics will almost certainly not be a factor. Now playing in 2,567 venues, the latest Step Up may be able to dance up $11 million for its' debut, putting it in fourth place for the weekend. Expect around $30 million by the time it leaves theaters.
With $225 million in its' first seven days, The Dark Knight Rises posted the fourth-biggest opening week of all-time. However, it is falling behind the pace of its' predecessor, and with still some moviegoers hesitant about seeing it on the big screen (due to last week's shooting), it may be too late for it to catch up. Still though, word-of-mouth should drive it to a solid second weekend. I'd expect a 55% fall to $73 million, giving it close to $300 million in just 10 days.
As for Ice Age: Continental Drift, expect it to hold a bit better this weekend before taking another major hit when Diary of a Wimpy Kid 3 releases next weekend. A 35% drop may be in order, giving the animated fourquel roughly $13.5 million for its' third weekend, for a 17-day tally of $115 million. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be The Amazing Spider-Man, which should recover a bit after losing a huge chunk of audience last weekend. A 40% drop to $6.5 million would give the reboot $242 million in 27 days.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#6: Ted ($5.5 million, -45%)
#7: Brave ($4.2 million, -30%)
#8: Magic Mike ($2.4 million, -47%)
#9: Savages ($2 million, -40%)
#10: Moonrise Kingdom ($1.2 million, -37%)
