Well, it appears the wait is just about over, as the final installment of Christopher Nolan's blockbuster trilogy The Dark Knight Rises is finally hitting theaters. The threequel arrives four years after the record-breaking performance of The Dark Knight, which tallied a huge $158 million opening weekend, which was (at the time) the largest opening weekend ever for a film, on its' way to over $530 million domestically, which was (at the time) the second-biggest domestic gross ever for a movie. Since then, the movie has been passed by Avatar and The Avengers on the domestic chart and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part II and Avengers for the largest opening weekend record. But can this Batman finale take down the Marvel superhero squad's jaw-dropping $207.4 million debut? Its' possible, but we need to remember that Avengers had 3D boosting it, whereas this one doesn't (IMAX will help though). Also, the film will have to compete against the third weekend of The Amazing Spider-Man, and The Bourne Legacy in just a few weeks. Plus, the new villains Catwoman and Bane aren't nearly as popular as the Joker, which may push away die-hard fans of the superhero, and its' a lot darker than what Spider-Man and Avengers brought to the table, so the family audience will likely sit this one out. Still though, the anticipation is so high for this, that its' virtually impossible for it to disappoint. Plus critical reception has been very positive, which will help as well. I don't expect this to beat its' predecessor in the long run, but it should still come very close.Opening in close 4,400 theaters nationwide, expect The Dark Knight Rises to awaken to a huge $188 million over the weekend. If I was to break it down further, it should earn close to $25 million at midnight, add up to $80 million on Friday, $62 million (-24%) on Saturday, and $46 million (-26%) on Sunday. It should then go on to gross close to $500 million domestically.
As for holdovers, The Dark Knight Rises will likely have a strong effect on most of them. Obviously expect The Amazing Spider-Man to take the roughest decline, while comedies (Ted, Magic Mike) should be down closer to 40%. The animated films (Ice Age: Continental Drift, Brave, Madagascar 3) and limited releases (Moonrise Kingdom) should see the strongest holds due to no additional competition.
Here is the rest of the Top 10:
#2: Ice Age: Continental Drift ($30 million, -36%)
#3: The Amazing Spider-Man ($14.5 million, -58%)
#4: Ted ($13.5 million, -40%)
#5: Brave ($7.2 million, -36%)
#6: Magic Mike ($5 million, -45%)
#7: Savages ($4.8 million, -48%)
#8: Madea's Witness Protection ($3.3 million, -42%)
#9: Moonrise Kingdom ($2.8 million, -23%)
#10: Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted ($2.4 million, -35%)
