The new year is here, and the first weekend of the year usually is a weak one. But with only one new release, holdovers that have gotten word-of-mouth through the holidays may stabilize better than expected. Based on my predictions, box office will be down from last years' lackluster frame...
(NOTE: I am using a new system on predicting the weekend. When I experimented with it a few weeks ago, it worked better and saved me a bit more time.)
Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Its' been showing excellent word-of-mouth, which should keep its' drop under 50%. Its' also been showing some excellent weekday business so far, and is set to cross the $150 million barrier on Thursday.
Weekend Prediction: $16 million (-46%)
Estimated 24-Day Total: $167 million
#2: Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
Its' seen much stronger sustainability than its' predecessor, but with Mission still around, it isn't going to hold well this weekend. But at least it will continue to close the gap between it and its' predecessor.
Weekend Prediction: $10.5 million (-50%)
Estimated 24-Day Total: $154.2 million
#3: The Devil Inside
This weekends' lone new release is highly anticipated within a select group, and distributor Paramount Pictures (who celebrates its' 100th anniversary this year) is hoping for this to become the next Paranormal Activity. But, most horror films in the past year have struggled (with the striking exceptions of Paranormal Activity 3 and Insidious), and this is an odd time of year to release a horror flick. The one advantage this might have is that it is a supernatural horror, similar to last years' The Rite and 2010's The Last Exorcism, which both earned opening weekends in the $15-$20 million range. Unless if it gets a significant boost in buzz, its' highly unlikely this will come close to those numbers, especially with a release in just around 2,000 theaters and not much on the promotional front either. The good news is that it doesn't have to go far to become a success, as it was cheaply-produced, at least that's what I've heard.
Weekend Prediction: $9.5 million
Estimated Final Gross: $20 million
#4: Alvin & The Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
The top family choice of the holidays will look to continue holding better than its' predecessors. I wouldn't expect a remarkable hold, but at least something under 50% as there is no new choices for its' audience. Even with it crossing the $100 million mark, its' only going to finish with about 60% of its' predecessors' final grosses.
Weekend Prediction: $9 million (-45%)
Estimated 24-Day Total: $112.1 million
#5: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
David Fincher's foreign book adaption has been getting big awards season attention so far, and that could make it hold remarkably this frame. If it can secure a few Oscar nominations, then $100 million domestic will happen after all. Its' also shown strong weekday business, which is another good sign for legs.
Weekend Prediction: $8.7 million (-41%)
Estimated 19-Day Total: $74.2 million
#6: We Bought A Zoo
Strong word-of-mouth should keep it holding strongly and in this spot for the third-straight weekend.
Weekend Prediction: $8.3 million (-38%)
Estimated 17-Day Total: $56.8 million
#7: War Horse
Steven Spielberg's war drama is appealing strongly to older audiences, but it hasn't been a choice for family audiences, as its' weekday business hasn't been as strong as much of its' competition. It should at least hold decently though, and hope for stronger legs if it wins big at the Golden Globes next weekend.
Weekend Prediction: $7.8 million (-46%)
Estimated 14-Day Total: $55.7 million
#8: The Adventures of Tintin
Spielberg's other holiday release isn't faring well with the other competition aimed at families. But, it has done solid weekday business by far, which could be a sign for a good hold this week and appeal for non-family audiences as well. But $100 million domestic is just about out of the question, unless if it earns significant nominations at the Oscars.
Weekend Prediction: $6.2 million (-46%)
Estimated 19-Day Total: $62.4 million
#9: The Descendants
With the Golden Globes coming up and the Oscar nominations to be announced the weekend after, this film is prime for holding well. Star George Clooney has earned a nomination for Best Actor and the film has also taken a Best Picture-Drama nomination. That could work well in its' favor and it should see the strongest hold out of all the holdovers...
Weekend Prediction: $2.5 million (-27%)
Estimated 8-Week Total: $43.7 million
#10: New Year's Eve
Just the fact that there's only one new release will keep it in the Top 10 this weekend. But the holiday is over, so it will plummet this weekend.
Weekend Prediction: $2.1 million (-66%)
Estimated 30-Day Total: $50.9 million
Possible change: There's a possibility that the expansion of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy to 750+ theaters could get it as high as ninth place for the weekend, but that's not expected since it was shut out of the Golden Globes. Dependent on how hard New Year's Eve drops, there's also a possibilty that either The Darkest Hour or The Muppets could take the 10th spot...
