Welcome to a new series of monthly previews where I will be doing long-distance forecasting for movies releasing over the next month, and see how this January will compare to last year...
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With the holiday season come and gone, its' time for a new year...and usually, the Winter Box Office Season (January and February) is normally the slowest. Last January was the least-attended since the mid-90's, with Seth Rogen's comic book adaption The Green Hornet ($98.8 million) and Ashton Kutcher-Natalie Portman romantic comedy No Strings Attached ($70.7 million) led the month to a combined total of $329.8 million, down 16% from 2010, and a sharp 58% from 2009. Based on tracking, this January's releases don't look like they will have a chance at beating last year's...
Here is an analysis based on week-to-week:
January 6
The first weekend of the year has only one new release, supernatural thriller The Devil Inside. Buzz has been modest by far, but horror flicks have struggled over the last six months, and it really doesn't seem like this is going to buck that trend. If buzz picks up, it could at least manage an opening close to The Rite ($15 million opening/$34 million finish)
Early Forecast: Mission Impossible - Ghost Protocol will likely win for the third-straight weekend, while Devil might settle for a third or fourth place finish.
January 13
The first handful of major releases come out in time for the extended Martin Luther King, Jr. Weekend. The biggest wild card of the weekend will be if Disney's re-release of Beauty and the Beast (3D) will be able to even come close to The Lion King's re-release numbers. That's going to be hard, since Beauty already is on DVD and Blu-ray, whereas Lion King came into theaters a few weeks before its' DVD and Blu-ray debut. But, it is the only family-friendly choice that month, which could translate into respectable numbers.
Dolly Parton returns to movies alongside Queen Latifah and young star Keke Palmer in musical comedy Joyful Noise. The film aims for teenagers that saw films such as High School Musical 3, Hairspray and Mamma Mia! Though the latter films' number will not happen, something similar to the second of the three might be a decent target.
Finally, action thriller Contraband releases into theaters. Starring Mark Wahlberg, it looks to try and at least get numbers similar to action films such as Drive and In Time. There isn't much starpower, and anticipation isn't very high, so its' likely to land in the lowest position among all the new releases that week.
Early Forecast: Taking advantage of family audiences, Beauty has the upright advantage for winning the four-day holiday weekend, followed by Joyful Noise and Contraband in second and third.
January 20
The third weekend of January brings the month's most-anticipated title with the franchise continuation Underworld: Awakening. The action fantasy flick arrives three years after Rise of the Lycans did around $60 million domestic. The fact that this latest title is in 3-D and IMAX 3-D should help it to get to that same number, similar to Resident Evil: Afterlife, which was another 3-D fourquel.
War flick Red Tails also is aiming for a strong audience. Originally developed by the legendary George Lucas, this has starpower, with Cuba Gooding Jr. and Terrence Howard headlining. However, considering the fact that it has to compete against two other action-oriented flicks, this may get stuck out in the cold. But decent numbers should still be expected.
Relativity Media gets into the game as well with action thriller Haywire. Director Steven Soderbergh had a huge hit back in September with Contagion, and it has starpower with Antonio Banderas, Channing Tatum, Bill Paxton and Ewan MacGregor, but Relativity Media has not seen much success since its' still an upstart distributor. And business will likely be spread out even with its' competition, which could limit business drastically for this one as well.
Early Forecast: Underworld will likely get away with the weekend, with Red Tails and Haywire at least getting into the Top 5.
January 27
There isn't really anything with good potential over the last weekend of the month. But out of all of them, action comedy One for the Money has the best shot. It has starlet Katherine Heigl, who has seen good successes over the last few years, along with John Leguizamo and the legendary Debbie Reynolds. Perhaps middling numbers might suit this one best.
Avatar star Sam Worthington is hoping to stand on his own with crime thriller Man on a Ledge. Along with Elizabeth Banks and Jamie Bell, the film also doesn't quite have a lot of buzz going for it now, so a low opening is expected.
Liam Neeson thriller The Grey is also having low expectations. And while this film is trying to replicate the success of Unknown and Taken, its' certainly unlikely based on early buzz that this will reach that films' numbers.
Early Forecast: It's going to be a close one between the second weekend of Underworld and Money.
