Overall box office should get a boost from at least two potential big players this weekend. Overall business could be close with last year, as the one-two punch of first place and second place could help catch movie business up when It ($60 million) led the box office again in the face of American Assassin ($14.8 million) and mother! ($7 million).
Here is the predicted Top 10:
#1: The Predator ($28 million)
Shane Black's (Kiss Kiss Bang Bang) reboot of the iconic horror franchise has been generating quite a bit of buzz heading into its' release. Meanwhile, Fox has continued to market it very well over the past couple of months. The popularity of this particular franchise plus an appealing marketing effort should result in a solid opening. Maybe not blockbuster-worthy (the R rating will probably hold it back) but solid nonetheless.
#2: The Nun ($26 million, -52%)
It may be a closer race for #1 than many people anticipated. But, the mixed word-of-mouth regarding Nun probably signals a drop above 50% for its sophomore frame. But, with the 10-day gross likely to be above $100 million, I doubt Warner Bros. is complaining.
#3: A Simple Favor ($15 million)
This particular book adaptation has also been tracking solidly over the past couple months. In the face of the more male-driven Predator, females are given this mystery to chew on. Up and coming actress Blake Lively will pull in a decent crowd, and Anna Kendrick is a solid draw too. With not much options for females, look for this to perform decently.
#4: Crazy Rich Asians ($9 million, -34%)
Luckily for this other book adaptation, Simple Favor is rated R. That means this phenomenon should continue its' streak of strong holds heading into its fifth weekend.
#5: White Boy Rick ($7.5 million)
This is a tricky one to predict. Sony and Studio 8 are hoping to pull in a more niche, older crowd for this true story thriller. It was supposed to possibly be an awards contender, but early attempts to get it into that conversation failed. In that case, White Boy Rick's best chance at success is to pull in older adults not into murder mysteries or gory action movies. It may do that a little bit, but its' going to be hard for it to do so.
#6: Peppermint ($7 million, -47%)
While word-of-mouth is decent for Jennifer Garner's latest, its' going to be competing with A Simple Favor for some of the female crowd. That doesn't spell good news if you ask me.
#7: Unbroken: Path to Redemption ($4 million)
The final new release has some positive attention going for it. Buzz has been decent while the marketing effort has been solid. The first Unbroken, a war film, was a box office success back in late 2014. Here, Path to Redemption does not have the big studio backing of Universal like the first film. Instead, Pure Flix releases this sequel as it focuses on the more faith-based elements of Louis Zamperini's life. I definitely would expect a far better debut here than last weekend's God Bless the Broken Road, though it doesn't look uplifting or crowd-pleasing enough to live up to to the best faith-based movie openings.
#8: The Meg ($3.5 million, -42%)
Luckily for The Meg, Predator is rated R. This means anyone not old enough to watch that movie will flock to this one instead. Look for another solid hold here.
#9: Searching ($3 million, -34%)
The well-received tech thriller should continue to post stellar holding power in its third frame.
#10: Christopher Robin ($2.5 million, -22%)
The only family film in the list. Disney's latest should have a strong hold again as parents and kids will essentially only have this option in wide release.
