Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Zootopia ($64 million)
#2: London Has Fallen ($18 million)
#3: Deadpool ($17 million, -46%)
#4: Whisky Tango Foxtrot ($11.5 million)
#5: Gods of Egypt ($6 million, -57%)
#6: Risen ($4.5 million, -34%)
Kung Fu Panda 3 ($4.5 million, -49%)
#8: Eddie the Eagle ($4 million, -33%)
#9: The Witch ($3 million, -40%)
Triple 9 ($3 million, -52%)
Zootopia is the first real big release from the Mouse House this year (The Finest Hours may have had a Disney logo on it, but it bottomed out with only around $25 million from this side of the world), and its coming in with huge buzz for an animated flick. Disney Animation has been on the rise since Tangled, and its becoming very clear this will be another major win for them. Reviews are fantastic so far (a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes from 25 critics), and it's getting an IMAX 3D release (a first for Disney Animation). Look for this to possibly come close or match the opening weekend of The Lorax, and in what has been a fairly uneventful year for family flicks so far (Kung Fu Panda 3 has been underperforming a little), the marketplace is in need of a major family blockbuster, and this could very well be it. Little competition until Disney's own The Jungle Book in April will only further help matters.
London Has Fallen is the sequel to 2012's surprise hit Olympus Has Fallen, which earned around $100 million in the month of October. London has had OK buzz, and is outpacing star Gerard Butler's last film, Gods of Egypt. I don't see it opening as high as that film's $26 million, but high-teens would still be very solid by all means.
Meanwhile, Whisky Tango Foxtrot will be aiming for females as Tina Fey and Margot Robbie try to corral them in. The R rating will hold it back somewhat, but there hasn't been much for females besides How to Be Single. However, the very odd film title will probably do more negative than positive. Early reviews are decent (60% on Rotten Tomatoes), but that may not help much either. Look for somewhere around $10 million, with Sisters' $13.5 million being the ceiling here.
Deadpool will slip from the top spot, but it will remain in the mix as Zootopia will be catering for a much younger crowd. Ryan Reynolds' Merc with a Mouth should have a decent hold in the midst of kiddie crowds. On the other hand, the Disney flick will spell trouble for Kung Fu Panda 3 and controversy/word-of-mouth will plague Gods of Egypt. Risen should continue to level off at a slightly more front-loaded pace than other films in the faith-based genre usually have.
Eddie the Eagle could catch up with older adults and possibly hold strong thanks to strong reviews, word-of-mouth, and Oscar Sunday passed. But maybe I'm being too optimistic. The Witch will benefit from no competition while Triple 9's disastrous "C+" CinemaScore won't bode well for it at all (unless it pulls a 21 Jump Street, which won't happen...).
