Here is the projected Top 10:
#1: Deadpool ($55 million, -59%)
#2: Kung Fu Panda 3 ($13 million, -34%)
#3: Risen ($11 million)
#4: The Witch ($10.5 million)
#5: Race ($10 million)
#6: How to Be Single ($8 million, -55%)
#7: Zoolander No.2 ($6.5 million, -54%)
#8: The Revenant ($5 million, -24%)
#9: Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($4.5 million, -28%)
#10: Hail, Ceasar! ($4 million, -38%)
For the three newcomers, its looking incredibly close. They've all had the same level of overall buzz (fairly low). Its' likely at this moment they will all be competing for second or (more likely) third place this weekend.
The first Christian movie of 2016 launches this weekend as Risen showcases Jesus' resurrection from an unbeliever's point of view. This interesting concept has been marketed very strongly in previous faith-based releases such as War Room, Woodlawn and 90 Minutes in Heaven. Distributor Sony has had success with this genre with War Room as well as Courageous, Heaven is for Real and When the Game Stands Tall. Buzz, while quiet, has been very decent for a film of its type. Do not be surprised if it opens above $10 million. But even if it lands closer to God's Not Dead ($8.5 million) and Game ($9 million), it would still be a good start.
The Witch is the next horror film of the year, and is benefiting from strong reviews (86% on Rotten Tomatoes so far). While buzz has been arguably quiet, the A24 films release will not have hardly any competition as The Boy will fall out of the Top 10 after last weekend. It could come close to that film's $11 million opening, and could hold well through the beginning of March if reviews translate to word-of-mouth.
Race is the biopic of famous African-American runner Jesse Owens. Its had some minor buzz from pre-screenings (from online critics), but no reviews have come in yet. If there's one movie that comes to mind, its the Jackie Robinson film 42, but that one had much heavier promotion. The Focus Features production may just have to settle for a modest debut and hope to have legs if word-of-mouth is strong.
Deadpool will easily remain on top, but one has to wonder how hard it will drop in the wake of its phenomenal opening (fans already rushed out), and yet strong word-of-mouth. The R-rated flick will obviously show some signs of front-loadedness as usual for a superhero pic, so I'd say a drop in the 55-60% range should be expected. It will likely remain on top until Zootopia comes out March 4.
Kung Fu Panda 3 will continue to benefit from a lack of options for family audiences, and should have a strong hold in its fourth weekend. Meanwhile, last weekend's How to Be Single and Zoolander No.2 will drop hard in the face of Valentine's Day's passing and negative reception, respectively. The stronger holds will go to the older holdovers, as Oscar contender The Revenant and the crowd-pleasing Star Wars: The Force Awakens continue to chug along. Hail, Ceasar! should also level off a bit.
